EUROPEAN BANKS

BANK March 09 April 13 Dec 13 April 14 % gain in 5 years loss or gain since Dec 2013
LLOYDS 35.6p 47p 81p 72.82p 104.5% -8.9%
RBS 257p 265p 340p 306.5p 19.2% -9.8%
HSBC 425p 671p 660p 604.2p 42.1% -8.5%
Barclays 139p 260p 260p 235.5p 49.9% -9.6%
Societe Generale €25.00 €€29.00 €42.05 €45.21 80.8% +7.5%
BNP €40.00 €31.40 €56.38 €57.56 43.9% 2.1%
Credit Agricole €8.50 €6.12 €9.28 €11,41 34.2% +22.9%
Deutsche Bank €29.20 €29.40 €34.80 €32.03 9.7% -7.9%
Commerzbank €23.70 €8.40 €11.66 €13.73 -42% +17.7%
Santander €6.10 €5.20 €6.50 €7.14 +17% +9.8%
BBVA €6.50 €6.50 €8.95 €9.10 +40% +1.6%
INTESA €1.78 €1.15 €1.80 €2.50 +40.4% +38.8%
Unicredit €7.95 €3.27 €5.35 €6.55 -17.6% +22.4%
ING €3.60 €5.60 €10.00 €10.10 +177% +180.5%

It is sometime since I set out a table of performance for bank shares over a period of 5 years and one year. With the authorities in the EU likely to suggest that banks may well need more capital – somewhere between €200 and €300 billion, it is interesting to see how the market has interpreted their respective recovery.

Certainly the yellow jersey goes to Holland’s ING. ING was vicious in writing off its bad debts and this has been reflected in its recovery. Perhaps investors were over egregious in terms of French banks. I have my doubts about them particularly with their commitment to Eastern Europe and to ‘Uncle Vlad.’ All things being equal if Russia were to eventually come back on the bridle, their future could be set fair. Spain and Italy have surprised me. There again a stronger recovery in recent months has manifested itself – though I am loathe to believe the Spanish fable. UK banks have been dogged with LIBOR, PPI and other regulatory issues – hence they have surrendered between 8-9% since Decemeber

After gargantuan gains made until the turn of the year, apart from Italy I am sceptical about the sector cracking on!

These are David Buik personal views

Twitter – @truemagic68

David Buik

Market Commentator

D +44 (0)20 7886 2775
Panmure Gordon & Co
One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF | United Kingdom
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