Panmure’s Simon French’s current views on a Greek Settlement

Indications are that the Eurozone finance ministers will agree to the Greek reform proposals at their 1300 GMT meeting. ASE up 7.5% on this expectation. It pulls back from the brink (until July) but the cost for Syriza may be high domestically as the proposals conflict with much of what they stood for during the election campaign. Greece will struggle to deliver anything of note on the list and we will be back here in the summer but with the Germans challenging the Greeks that they have not delivered on their side of the bargain. The likely outcome will be that Germany will insist that Syriza are replaced by a technocratic “Monti-style” government which in turn will take Greece closer to the exit door. That said EZ equity markets should like the breathing space provided to allow them to enjoy the impact of a weaker Euro and the start of QE. 

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