Panmure’s Simon French’s concerns about GREECE

Despite the comparative calm on Greece since the bailout extension last month the situation is deteriorating fairly quickly. The Eurogroup announced last night that the troika are commencing a monitoring exercise tomorrow – with technical teams allowed to monitor the situation on the ground in Athens – this will inflame tensions further. A couple of high profile analyses suggest that the short term funding position of Greece is secure till the end of June – others to the end of March, but those represent an economic analysis of an entirely political exercise and therefore are close to irrelevant in determining the conclusion to the crisis. In reality funding is secure in perpetuity as long as Athens play ball with the troika institutions, this is why the weekend’s talk of referenda (Varoufakis) and declining popularity of Euro membership is far more relevant to the exit timescale than when repayments fall due. Not yet the time to be fishing on the ASE for bargains.

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