If, after all the ‘horse trading’ and jockeying for position has taken the place involving Greece, the ECB, EC and the IMF leads to a fragile accord, REMEMBER, this is the end of the beginning and NOT the beginning of the end! It will take 5 years to untangle the mess, which has not just been caused by Greece’s incompetence, profligacy and inability to understand the meaning of the word corruption. The EU and the EURO are proving to be an unmitigated disaster. When the EU included just Germany, France and the Benelux countries it made so much sense for defence purposes, trade and financial stability. Membership, that encompasses 27 countries, ventures to suggest that Europe is ungovernable. Greece is broke – 11 million people with no industry and little commerce cannot service €240 billion of debt, let alone repay it. This crisis is much more of a political one rather than a financial or economic issue.
Chancellor Merkel, understandably is being blackmailed by Tsipras, who dangles Putin under her nose with a dysfunctional Giaconda smile all over his face, knowing perfectly well that any Russian presence in the Piraeus would mean a trade and financial blockade being imposed by the Western world. Frankly the EU has a moral obligation to assist the Greek nation with its trials and tribulations, having bulldozed Greece in to the EU when it wasn’t even close to making the financial criteria required. Any agreement made this week is purely another opportunity to impose procrastination or an excuse not to face the music. Thus the ‘Greek can’ will continue to be booted down the cobble stones of the great capitals of Europe until the cry is ‘ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!’ – maybe in 5 years.
The level of indecision and inertia within the EU may play into PM Cameron’s hands in terms of negotiating power over 2016/7 referendum. The EU does not work he will say to the EU and it needs radical changes to be imposed. On the other hand the sceptics will be adamant that the EU does not work and never will work.
European stock markets were desperate to hang on to a relief rally, which looks to have over played its hand. At 9.30am the FTSE was up 1.5% at 6806. The DAX and CAC had made even more measurable gains – +2.75% – DAFT! SKY was on fire having been ravaged by takeover gossip – +4% and Severn Trent made good gains adding 3% thanks again to M&A speculation.