THIS MORNING’S FAYRE – Monday 29th June 2015

 

Half a league, half a league,

Half a league onward,

All in the valley of Death

Rode the six hundred.

 

“Forward, the Light Brigade!

“Charge for the guns!” he said:

Into the valley of Death

Rode the six hundred.

 

“Forward, the Light Brigade!”

Was there a man dismay’d?

Not tho’ the soldier knew

Someone had blunder’d:

Theirs not to make reply,

 

Theirs not to reason why,

Theirs but to do and die:

Into the valley of Death

Rode the six hundred.

 

Cannon to right of them,

Cannon to left of them,

Cannon in front of them

Volley’d and thunder’d;

 

Storm’d at with shot and shell,

Boldly they rode and well,

Into the jaws of Death,

Into the mouth of Hell

Rode the six hundred.

 

 

Flash’d all their sabres bare,

Flash’d as they turn’d in air,

Sabring the gunners there,

Charging an army, while

All the world wonder’d:

 

Plunged in the battery-smoke

Right thro’ the line they broke;

Cossack and Russian Reel’d from the sabre stroke

Shatter’d and sunder’d.

Then they rode back, but not

Not the six hundred.

 

Cannon to right of them,

Cannon to left of them,

Cannon behind them

Volley’d and thunder’d;

 

Storm’d at with shot and shell,

While horse and hero fell,

They that had fought so well

Came thro’ the jaws of Death

Back from the mouth of Hell,

All that was left of them,

Left of six hundred.

 

When can their glory fade?

O the wild charge they made!

All the world wondered.

Honor the charge they made,

Honor the Light Brigade,

Noble six hundred.”

 

 Alfred, Lord Tennyson – poet – 1809-1892

 

So as predicted we have apolitical and financial mess, which was totally unnecessary. Markets will now be in turmoil. The EU and the IMF have been on notice for years that Greece was falling further and further in to the economic abyss and have done very little to head off this inevitable crisis.

Politicians just never seem learn that their ignorance, lack of economic savvy and naïve mishandling of an issue of this magnitude has a huge price to pay. Chancellor Merkel! Hang your head in shame on behalf of Germany, who initially bullied Greece into the EU, when the financial criteria was never in place. PM Tsipras was a naïve schoolboy who led Greece into his own ‘Charge of the light brigade, without a cat in hells’ chance of delivering the fatted calf. Varoufakis was ‘Machiavellian’ in the extreme. He knew the sums did not add up.

The reactions of the ECB will be key today. Without a firm grip, markets really could fall out of bed. They cannot deal with uncertainty or indecision, which it is being confronted with in spades.

 

I suspect that at the end of the day GREXIT is inevitable. The so called Greek referendum is not a referendum, it is a plebiscite, as it has been called by politicians, who are not united and not by the people. I have little doubt that in 5 years-time, Greece will be pleased to be out of the EU with a devalued Drachma. Italy, in particular and Portugal will be watching eagerly at these machinations. If Greece’s departure is a success, they will ask to have their keys to their kingdom. What an unholy mess!

 

The FTSE is expected to be down nearly 200 points, the DAX by 482 points and the CAC by 180 points. Sentiment is negative and until the uncertainty disappears the outlook is quite grim, which is annoying for the UK, which frankly is in quite good shape.

 

 

 

 

David Buik – market commentator

 

Panmure Gordon & Co

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