TODAY’S FAYRE – Tuesday 14th July 2015
“When I go up through the mowing field,
The headless aftermath,
Smooth-laid like thatch with the heavy dew,
Half closes the garden path.
And when I come to the garden ground,
The whir of sober birds
Up from the tangle of withered weeds
Is sadder than any words
A tree beside the wall stands bare,
But a leaf that lingered brown,
Disturbed, I doubt not, by my thought,
Comes softly rattling down.
I end not far from my going forth
By picking the faded blue
Of the last remaining aster flower
To carry again to you.’
Robert Frost – poet – 1874-1963
BASTILLE DAY – 14th July 1789
“They seek him here, they seek him there
Those Frenchies seek him everywhere
Is he in heaven or is he in hell?
That demned elusive Pimpernel”
Baroness Orczy – ‘The Scarlet Pimpernel”
Australia’s cricket coach Darren Lehmann made me shriek with mirth after his side’s ignominious defeat last week, when asking the Lord’s grounds man to prepare a hard quick wicket at Lord’s this week. So you want one that Johnson and Siddle can bounce balls around our batsmen’s’ ears, such as was perfected in Australia during England’s 5-0 thrashing! – In your dreams, mate. So when we next come to Perth, a feather-bed wicket will be made to measure for England? I don’t think so!
Emily Watson’s portrayal of Julie Nicholson, the mother of Jenny, who was mutilated by terrorists in the 7/7 bombings ten years ago in the BBC’S brilliant re-enactment of that tragedy in ‘A Song for Jenny’ was a truly memorable performance, which surely guarantees her at least a ‘BAFTA’ if not an ‘EMMY!’
I doubt my colleague and friend, Simon French, Panmure’s senior economist, could have described the Greek Crisis more succinctly when he compared it to a ‘PONZI SCHEME MASQUERADING AS A RECOVERY PLAN!” The whole deal is absolute ‘cobblers!’ The EU/IMF and Greece will eventually rue the day they ever agreed to such gobbledygook. Anyway enough said! One presumes that Tsipras with the help of right wing parties will get this dire recovery plan through Parliament tomorrow for no other reason than the fact that it needs the ECB’s largesse on Thursday and also Greece needs to repay €3.2 billion on 20th July to the IMF and then a further €7.2 billion in August. So, as they say – ‘Hobson’s Choice!’ Without the ECB Greek banks will remain closed; food will rot, people will die without medicine and cars will eventually come to halt with petrol unavailable. Dramatic exaggeration on my part, but a possibility without much needed assistance.
Anyway this ‘carve-up’ had the desired affect that equity markets were looking for, though the bond market was slightly underwhelmed. The rally was a relief one – no more no less! There is little evidence with current valuations and with oil and commodity prices remaining subdued that these bourses should crack on. The DAX and the CAC rallied at close by 2%. The FTSE was not quite so effervescent adding just about 1%. Banks, pharmas and Vodafone led a muted charge.
On the Street of Dreams the three main indices lost little opportunity in grabbing some much enjoyed relief value – DOW +1.22%, S&P +1.11% and the NASDAQ +1.48%. Apple shares added 1.93% to circa $125.66, which coincided with this tech giants publicity campaign on the consumers;’ ability to use ‘Apple Pay’ to settle their bills in the UK. News permeated that Apple’s smartphone industry profits soared by 92%, despite only having 20% of the smartphone market. The US 2nd quarter earnings season starts today with JP Morgan and Johnson & Johnson. Though this week’s results should pass muster, sales figures may well drop this quarter due to a persistently strong Greenback.
There was a little turmoil in Shanghai and HK this morning. At one point the Shanghai Composite was down 3% but was only down 0.86% towards the close, with the Hang Seng easier by 0.93%. The NIKKEI, on a weak Yen was up 1.47%. The FTSE this morning was anaemic – down 2 points at 9.00am. Johnston Press fell 11% thanks to unexpectedly poor advertising revenues. There were solid results from Michael Page and First Group and Carillion was up 3% thanks to a BP contract won in the Middle East for new employee homes. I suspect that markets will be somnolent until the Greek vote tomorrow and the ECB’s action on Thursday
UK companies posting results next week – Tuesday – MICHAEL PAGE, FIRST GROUP, Wednesday – BURBERRY (TS), ICAP, HALFORDS, MONEYSUPERMARKET, SEVERN TRENT, JD WETHERSOON, RPC GROUP Thursday – DIXONS CARPHONE, SPORTS DIRECT INTERNATIONAL, POLYUS GOLD INTERNATIONAL, HILTON FOODS (TS).
U.S. companies posting interim results – Tuesday – JP MORGAN CHASE, AAR CORPN, JOHNSON& JOHNSON, CSX GROUP, Wednesday – BANK OF AMERICA, DELTA, U.S. BANCORP, BLACKROCK, INTEL, NETFLIX, Thursday – CITIGROUP, CHARLES SCHWAB, eBAY, MATTEL, GOOGLE, SCHLUMBERGER, Friday – COMERICA, GENERAL ELECTRIC
Economic data – Monday – US TREASURY BUDGET STATEMENT, Tuesday – UK CPI & EU INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, Wednesday – UK EMPLOYMENT DATA , USINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, Thursday – EU CPI, ECB MEETING, US JOBLESS CLAIMS, Friday – US CPI& HOUSING STARTS
David Buik – market commentator
Panmure Gordon & Co