TODAY’S FAYRE – Thursday, 8th October 2015

 

“Tenderly, day that I have loved, I close your eyes,
And smooth your quiet brow, and fold your thin dead hands.
The grey veils of the half-light deepen; colour dies.
I bear you, a light burden, to the shrouded sands,
Where lies your waiting boat, by wreaths of the sea’s making       5
Mist-garlanded, with all grey weeds of the water crowned.
There you’ll be laid, past fear of sleep or hope of waking;
And over the unmoving sea, without a sound,
Faint hands will row you outward, out beyond our sight,
Us with stretched arms and empty eyes on the fargleaming       
And marble sand.… Beyond the shifting cold twilight,
Further than laughter goes, or tears, further than dreaming,
There’ll be no port, no dawn-lit islands! But the drear
Waste darkening, and, at length, flame ultimate on the deep.
Oh, the last fire—and you, unkissed, unfriended there!        
Oh, the lone way’s red ending, and we not there to weep!
(We found you pale and quiet, and strangely crowned with flowers,
Lovely and secret as a child. You came with us,
Come happily, hand in hand with the young dancing hours,
High on the downs at dawn!) Void now and tenebrous,       
The grey sands curve before me.… From the inland meadows,
Fragrant of June and clover, floats the dark, and fills
The hollow sea’s dead face with little creeping shadows,
And the white silence brims the hollow of the hills.
Close in the nest is folded every weary wing,       
Hushed all the joyful voices; and we, who held you dear,
Eastward we turn and homeward, alone, remembering…
Day that I loved, day that I loved, the Night is here!”

 

 Rupert Brooke – poet & soldier – 1887-1915

 

Well I must admit the PM’s speech to the party faithful in Manchester yesterday did not make the hairs on the back of my neck stand up. I love all this caring compassionate Conservative rhetoric! The PM had great ideas on housing! I stood up from chair when Mr Cameron lambasted Jeremy Corbyn over Labour’s contempt for the nation’s security. Frankly though, I have to confess that I am more in love with austerity.  We have NOT seen much of it, as the debt burden increases. However compassion towards the poor and needy on tax credits requires a bit of flexibility.

 

Our domestic economists and marketing luminaries tell us that England’s exit from the Rugby World Cup could cost the country £3 billion in revenue on peripheral earnings from hotels, food beverage entertainment and merchandise sales.  I wonder if this is not excessive hysteria encompassing the ‘wringing of hands’ – ‘Woe is me for I am undone’ syndrome? There still seems to be a huge appetite for the next three weeks from what I can see.

 

SEPP BLATTER! MICHEL PLATINI! For God’s sake go in peace! The World has had enough from the vagaries of FIFA! Why wait 90 days – Enough is enough! The administration of the ‘Beautiful Game’ needs to move on at the rate of knots!

 

Yesterday was not a huge day for earnings in Europe, though Alcoa sets the ball rolling in the US this evening, with its numbers being eagerly awaited. However there is much to ruminate over. The MPC will keep rates at 0.5% – which has been the base rate since March 2009.  This time Panmure’s economist, Simon French asks the question – “Has the dissenting Ian McCafferty seen sufficient benign economic data to step back in line with consensus at noon today? It should be 9-0 in favour of no change. There is no doubt that the cynics are just about ‘full-up’ with ‘forward guidance.’ So we wait with trepidation to see what Mark Carney has to say on the subject. Markets will also be looking for guidance to see whether the BOE has the slightest intention of implementing a hike in rates to the exclusion of influence from the FED.  I doubt it, but I would enjoy some comment – confirmation or denial! ‘Forward Guidance’ may be starting to look redundant, since the EU, Japan and China are now fully engaged with QE and in the unlikely event of growth falling dramatically in the US and the UK, the floodgates could easily and painlessly be reopened.

 

Deutsche Bank’s new CEO, John Cryan used the ‘kitchen sink syndrome’ in shaking out as many financial skeletons as possible from its Berlin cupboard in posting a €6.2 billion loss for Germany largest bank and the world’s largest trading investment bank. The policy adopted seems to have relatively placated shareholders of this very poorly performing bank. Shares at 8.35am were only down 2% – a right royal result! It looks as if there will be no dividend and one suspects that there will be a considerable transfer of emphasis away from investment banking to commercial and retail banking in the next couple of years. Deutsche Bank officially posts results on 29th October 2015. At least we now know that Germany does not always get matters right and that their population has blood in its veins – VW & Deutsche Bank all in one month! I have this aching feeling that banking ailments won’t go way in the next couple of months – not be great time for banks following in the wake of Deutsche – Further PPI claims in UK, exposure of all banks to emerging markets, an explanation of how fresh outstanding shareholdings were issued in Barclays back in 2008 and finally the distasteful LIBOR trials, which will be on a roll until 2016.

 

Yesterday’s activity on the Street of Dreams reflected an improvement in the biotech sector and rising oil prices, allowing the DOW to close +0.58%, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ up 0.69% and 0.61% respectively. Rumours abound that there may be a coming of the ways between Dell and EMC.  Also the President of VW in the US is up before Congress to explain the automaker’s reprehensible behaviour. Today Asia enjoyed a tolerable session, as Shanghai returned to work from a 4-day holiday.  The Shanghai Composite rallied by 2.92% in the hope that new stimulus packages may be introduced before too long. The Hang Seng saw some profit takers and was down 0.91% near the close.  The Nikkei lost 0.99% after disappointing machinery orders in August.

 

The FTSE added just a parsimonious 10 points yesterday to 6336. This morning the FTSE is down 6 points at 9.05am. There were acceptable results from Tate & Lye, Dunelm, Centamin and Mondi. The outlook for Hays was a little murkier than many expected and shares were 5.5% easier. As the dust settles on Tesco’s numbers, it is as well to reflect on the previous profitability of this supermarket juggernaut. Under Sir Terence Leahy, profits went up from £750m in 1997 to £3.4 billion in 2010. Yesterday’s half year numbers saw a profit of £350 million, which ventures to suggest that no more than £800 million could be attained this year. There is surely a case for downsizing. Aldi and Lidl are not going away.  They each have 9000 European outlets and there is little sign of food inflation to help margins at the likes of Tesco and Sainsbury’s.

 

 UK companies posting number – Thursday – HAYS, DUNELM, TATE & LYLE, MONDI, CARILLION, CENTAMIN, DOMINO PIZZAS, Friday – XPOWER and VEDANTA RESOURCES.

U.S. Companies posting interim results – Thursday – ALCOA, RUBY TUESDAY

 

 ECONOMIC DATA – Thursday – MPC, Friday – UK BALANCE OF TRADE

 

David Buik – market commentator

 

 

David Buik

Market Commentator

 

D +44 (0)20 7886 2775

Panmure Gordon & Co  One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF | United Kingdom www.panmure.com

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