TODAY’S FAYRE

TODAY’S FAYRE – Tuesday, 17th November 2015

 

LA MARSEILLAISE

Allons enfants de la patrie,

Le jour de gloire est arrivé!

Contre nous de la tyrannie

L’etendard sanglant est levé! (bis)

Entendez-vous dans les campagnes,

Mugir ces féroces soldats? I

ls viennent jusque dans nos bras

Égorger nos fils, nos compagnes!

 

Amour sacré de la patrie,

Conduis, soutiens nos bras vengeurs!

Liberté, Liberté cherie,

Combats avec tes défenseurs! (bis)

Sous nos drapeaux, que la victoire

Accoure à tes mâles accents!

Que tes ennemis expirants

Voient ton triomphe et notre gloire!

 

Nous entrerons dans la carrière

Quand nos aînés n’y seront plus;

Nous y trouverons leur poussière

Et la trace de leurs vertus.

Bien moins jaloux de leur survivre

Que de partager leur cercueil,

Nous aurons le sublime orgueil

De les venger ou de les suivre!

 

Aux armes, citoyens!

Formez vos bataillons! Marchons! Marchons!

Qu’un sang impur Abreuve nos sillons!

 

As life in Paris attempts to get back to normal, my revered colleague David McCreadie makes the following observation –

 

“The son of a friend was at the Bataclan concert in Paris on Friday night and thankfully, made it out with his friend. 80 others didn’t and many more are left with life threatening and life changing injuries. Those young people saw things that evening that most soldiers don’t see in a career. Just as their lives have changed, so has life for us all. The attack which security services in Europe expected but dreaded manifested itself in a brutal slaughter of the innocent on a medieval scale. It is an unfortunate irony that many of those kids who were perhaps living life to the full, brimming with optimism and idealism would have been the very constituency who supported mass migration from Syria, Africa and the Middle East this year. I described it at the time as possibly the biggest ‘Trojan Horse’ in history. The full ramifications of unfettered migration over many months from war zones, is yet to be fully felt. Many senior commentators have been very sensitive so as not to cross-reference migration and terrorism. However some of the media have been at the forefront in creating political pressure to open the doors, but the fact remains that mainland Europe does not know what internal security risks it has created as a result of its liberal approach to the problem.’

 

PM Cameron is going to have to get all his ducks in a row in the House of Commons if he wants to an aggressive approach to Syria and ISIS.  It would be folly to expect any constructive help from Jeremy Corbyn, who seems more in the mood to ‘hug a terrorist’ than attempting to flush them out, neutralise them and eventually destroy them

 

It was great to hear Nick Robinson back on Radio 4’s Today Programme. His insightful comments are worth a ‘guinea-a-minute!’ He is a brave and stoical individual. I just hope that his voice can stand up to the rigours of a 3 hour show!

 

You couldn’t have written the script for yesterday’s market activity, if you had tried! Without accounting for any possible ‘fall-out’ from the atrocities, which took place in Paris on Friday evening, there was every chance that equity markets would have continued their negative trend yesterday, thanks to unappetising data, growth forecasts, the threat of higher rates in the US come December, faltering US retails sales and rich share valuations. But no it was not to be! It was a question of ‘two fingers’ to terrorism! We’re fixing our bayonets and we’re going over the top. The FTSE ended the up 28 points, having started the day down 40 points at 6146. The CAC, bless its cotton socks, completed the session just below the Plimsoll line – down 0.08% – amazing! Investors were having none of it.

 

Initially airlines, hotels and holiday companies suffered. Early on easyJet’s shares fell 3% as 115 of its flights go to Paris, whereas only 4% of Ryanair’s do. easyJet’s shares recovered to close down only 0.39%, whereas Ryanair’s closed easier by 1.4%. IAG, from an international perspective, lost 3% on the day. Hotels such as IHG took some stick as did Carnival, which was totally understandable.

 

The Street of Dreams really picked up the cudgel in what seemed like a gesture of total solidarity. ‘We’re not giving in to terrorism under any circumstances’ was the cry. On the back of higher oil prices, Chevron and Exxon Mobil both added 3%. We wait with bated breath for results from Walmart and Home Depot. They are very important barometers for the US retail base and consequently growth. It looks as though Starwood Hotels are to crawl in to the sack with Marriott. M&A keeps plunging on! – Drugs, breweries, media, hotels! – What next? Whether this current ‘upbeat’ mood can be maintained on economic and financial logic, remains to be seen. Certainly Asian stocks adopted a similar stance to the Street of Dreams with the ASX closing up 2.29% and the NIKKEI up 1.22% thanks to a weak Yen. A very strong Dollar prevails right across the spectrum. Chinese markets have seen a pull-back in the last couple of hours and after lunch the Shanghai Composite is down a smidgen by 0.06% and the Hang Seng had retreated from being up over 2% to just hanging on up 1% near to the close.

 

The FTSE was expected to open up with an excess of ebullience and it did not disappoint. Currently at 8.37am it is up 100 points at 6245. Oil stocks and the mining sector have led the charge – up an average of 2%. There have been a slew of earnings this morning. easyJet’s numbers looked a tad light but passenger levels were up 3.5% to 75 million passengers with profits up 18% on the year. Enterprise Inns, despite a right down of £145 million pleased its acolytes – up 4% as British Land – up 2.25%. Paddy Power’s numbers were in line and the merged operations with Betfair are to be known as Paddy Power Betfair – that’s very imaginative!!

 

At 9.30am this morning UK inflation for October will be posted. The rate is likely to remain unchanged at -0.1%. However with oil prices unlikely to drop much from these levels and a very Strong Pound with wage inflation growing, 1% is very probably by June 2016. 

 

UK companies posting results – Tuesday – ENTERPRISE INNS, ENTERTAINMENT ONE, BRITISH LAND, PADDY POWER, SARCO, EASYJET, Wednesday – UK MAIL, MONEYSUPERMARKET, Thursday – GRAINGER, ROYAL MAIL, CLOSE BROTHERS, JOHNSON MATTHEY, TED BAKER, Friday – FULLER, SMITH & TURNER

US companies posting interim results – Tuesday – WALMART, HOME DEPOT, DICK’S SPORTING GOODS, TJX, Wednesday – TARGET, Thursday – BEST BUY, ROSS STORES, MATCH, SQUARE (IPO), Friday – FOOT LOCKER, ABERCROMBIE & FITCH

ECONOMIC DATA – Tuesday UK PPI & CPI, Wednesday – FOMC MINUTES, Thursday – UK RETAIL SALES, EU BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, Friday – UK PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCES.

 

David Buik

 

Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & Co 

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