TODAY’S FAYRE – Wednesday, 17th February 2016


“What do they think has happened, the old fools,

To make them like this? Do they somehow suppose

It’s more grown-up when your mouth hangs open and drools,

And you keep on pissing yourself, and can’t remember

Who called this morning? Or that, if they only chose,

They could alter things back to when they danced all night,

Or went to their wedding, or sloped arms some September?

Or do they fancy there’s really been no change,

And they’ve always behaved as if they were crippled or tight,

Or sat through days of thin continuous dreaming

Watching the light move? If they don’t (and they can’t), it’s strange;

Why aren’t they screaming?


At death you break up: the bits that were you

Start speeding away from each other for ever

With no one to see. It’s only oblivion, true:

We had it before, but then it was going to end,

And was all the time merging with a unique endeavour

To bring to bloom the million-petalled flower

Of being here. Next time you can’t pretend

There’ll be anything else. And these are the first signs:

Not knowing how, not hearing who, the power

Of choosing gone. Their looks show that they’re for it:

Ash hair, toad hands, prune face dried into lines –

How can they ignore it?


Perhaps being old is having lighted rooms

Inside you head, and people in them, acting

People you know, yet can’t quite name; each looms

Like a deep loss restored, from known doors turning,

Setting down a lamp, smiling from a stair, extracting

A known book from the shelves; or sometimes only

The rooms themselves, chairs and a fire burning,

The blown bush at the window, or the sun’s

Faint friendliness on the wall some lonely

Rain-ceased midsummer evening. That is where they live:

Not here and now, but where all happened once.

This is why they give”



Philip Larkin – poet – 1922-1985


Emma Thompson is one of the most talented actresses ever to tread the boards of a theatre or to appear on celluloid this country has ever produced. She is almost in the same category as Dame Judi Dench.  So for the life of me, I do not understand that when she goes abroad to promote her film/work, does she have to foul-mouth this country with her wretched left wing dogma in such an uncharitable manner. She is entitled to her opinion over remaining in the EU, but be proud of this ‘Sceptred Isle!’ If not sling your hook, madam, and go and live elsewhere, which perhaps will be Elysium to you!  I noticed she was more than happy to fill her face at the Wolseley last week with the ‘good and the great!’ – Hypocrite is the word that comes to mind.


Sir Mike Rake, Chairman of BT Group, says people are not stupid and will choose to remain in the UK.  That’s a slightly insulting comment to those who have a different view of the future.


Before ‘chuntering away’ or ‘rabbiting on’ about market machinations that took place yesterday, it is as well to remember that few people have bothered to flag up the fact that the quality of the European earning season, so far, has been at best average and that is probably being kind.  US earnings to date have been tolerable.  So really, if a push comes to a shove, investors have little to complain about the fact that many indices have shed significant value this year.  The FTSE is light by about 4%, the S&P 500 by 7.3% and the DAX just as an example by 11.7%. With growth stagnant at best it is hard to see where increased profits are going to come from for the rest of the year.  So may I venture to suggest that with margins of profit wafer thin and oil prices unlikely to leap out of the traps until the 4th quarter, the banking sector could come under the cosh.


However yesterday and the day before banks’ shares rallied quite sharply on both sides of the pond from admittedly much trashed levels. You can understand that the rally took place in New York. From a regulatory perspective the US has got its act together rather more quickly than Europe. The UK has done a very adequate job and many think that the BOE is a very decent outfit and that Mark Carney has done a very diligent job, if he could just forget about ‘forward guidance.’ I think the market is done with that exercise.  That comment is probably more applicable to the FED than any other Central bank. I sincerely hope that the ECB gets a grip on the capital inadequacy of European banks.


Oil had a tricky ride yesterday.  Even though superficially Russia and Saudi agreed to freeze oil prices and sweep Venezuela in to an agreement, Iran, fresh from economic busting sanctions – thanks President Obama – was having none of it.  Also you can never quite believe anything Russia says.   Russia would probably want to keep tabs on the flow of oil from Iran and Iraq through Syria for political expediency and overall control. Oil is off its best levels and Nymex stands at $28.92 and Brent at $32.11.  Gold popped a little yesterday to $1204.65 an ounce.


The interesting and extraordinary activity on the FTSE seemed to be down to what to Anglo American shares during the session – up 6.5% down 7% and then ended up 4.9% on the day. It looks as though 39 mines are likely to be sold and there could be as many as 85,000 redundancies.  This share is becoming the new darling of day traders, but will shortly be coming out of the FTSE 100! The FTSE ended the session up 37 at 5862. The session on the Street of Dreams was far more ebullient with the DOW adding 1.39%, the S&P 500 1.65% and the NASDAQ 2.27%.  Investors backed the truck up for an array of industrial, banking and tech stocks that had been looking oversold.  Even though markets remain very enigmatic, Apollo agreed to pay the equivalent of $4.6 billion to take ADT, the security titan in to its portfolio.


Asia was slightly concerned about the significant level of loan growth in China. Nonetheless the ASX closed -0.57% with the NIKKEI down 1.3%. Just after lunch the Shanghai composite had dragged itself above the Plimsoll line to +1.01% though the Hang Seng remained down by 0.69%. In Singapore Boeing and Airbus were enjoying good sales and there was evidence of any cancellations.


This morning at 9.00am UK employment data hits the wires.  Keep an eye out for Panmure’s Simon French’s analysis.  The FTSE 100 is expected to open in positive territory – up 23 points.



U.K. Companies posting results this week –   Wednesday – NORSK HYDRO, Thursday – CENTRICA, BAE SYSTEMS, GO-AHEAD, REXUM Friday – MILLENNIUM COPTHORNE, STANDARD LIFE, SEGRO, COCA-COLA HBC

US companies posting interim results Wednesday – NEWMONT MINING, JACK-IN-THE-BOX, MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL, Thursday – APPLIED MATERIALS.

ECONOMIC DATA –  Wednesday – UK employment data, US Housing Starts, US industrial Production & FOMC minutes, Thursday – US Phili-Fed Index, ECB meeting

David Buik

Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & Co

D +44 (0)20 7886 2775

Mobile – 0044 7788 144 877

Panmure Gordon & Co

One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF | United Kingdom


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