Yesterday afternoon I had just watched John Gosden’s good filly, ‘Nathra’ win the Nell Gwyn at Newmarket like a worthy jolly, when some texted me about the IMF’s prognosis on the damage a BREXIT vote would have on the UK’s economy, the EU’s and globally! I embarrassed my wife and my friends with my shrieks of disbelieving mirth at this August body’s outrageous warning.
Though I have the utmost respect for Madame Largarde as an international ‘mover & shaker’ in the murky corridors of financial and political power, she must think that we are all naïve and must of come down to earth with the last shower. Above all else Mme Largarde is FRENCH – chop her in half and before your very eyes would be a vision of the ‘Tricolar’ and secondly the yellow and blue emblem of the EU. This announcement by the IMF’S chief economist, with no doubt the Managing Director’s endorsement, would have brought wry smiles from the purring UK PM and his Chancellor’s support in their quest to remain in the EU.
It will not have escaped many peoples’ notice that the IMF’s financial forecasting over the years has been dire and always behind the curve – despite Olivier Blanchard in the past and the recently appointed economist Maurice Obstfeld being held in high regard, thanks to much heralded political support. In many ways the IMF does a great job particularly with countries that suffers the ‘financial slings and arrows of outrageous fortune’, particularly in emerging countries. However let’s face it the IMF is a branch office of the EU. If the UK leaves – and it will be ‘nip and tuck’ on 24th June 2016 – that could precipitate the ‘break-up’ of the EU. No one will forget that a fudged deal cobbled together by the EU and the IMF to save Greece. It was always going to be of paramount importance to prevent any Italy, Spain and Portugal from not complying with austerity requirements. Why should the UK wait on what many consider to be inevitable – the possible demise of the EU as we know it today?
These rapier thrusts of fear, made by the IMF, are but pure supposition and conjecture, with little in the way of concrete evidence to support its threats. Trade is trade and at the end of the day pragmatism will prevail.
David Miliband’s exhortations to remain in the ‘Club’ were almost as hollow. The UK is one of 28 voices – no more, no less! It has one vote. The UK has no particular power base within the EU. If there is a power base then that is owned almost exclusively by Germany and France. Many in the UK are so looking forward to a brave new world, unshackled by an undemocratic body that frankly brings very little to our party, with the ability to decide its own economic future and destiny. Mr M – the UK is far more likely to have a say on the world stage than it is as a puppet of the EU. Let the people decide – Rule Britannia!