To quote an analogy to Lady Bracknell immortal comment to Jack Worthing – ‘One warning on BREXIT is understandable or the BOE might be considered to be in dereliction of its duty!’ But three BOE warnings – the last one not even a veiled threat is bordering on hysterical, if not careless.’
It may well be that all the great regulatory and global economic bodies are of similar accord on the subject of BREXIT but there is an aroma of collusion. ‘Mystic Meg’ might not be any less accurate on forecasting the dire economic outcome of BREXIT – higher unemployment, a collapse of growth and raging inflation – than Mark Carney and his colleagues. Nothing is going to materially happen for 2 years for goodness sake! I must confess to being very surprised at the rapaciousness of the warning. It was blunt and to the point. It was as if George Osborne had written the script – Heaven forbid that I ever even suggested that!
The track record for forecasting by Central banks is at best average. Though I have the greatest respect for Andy Haldane, it strikes me that these forecasts have been calculated as if all regulatory and trading arrangements will be withdrawn overnight. Pragmatism will play a significant role in any change. It is almost as if the BOE is begging for volatility. I cannot believe for a minute that ‘Vote Leave’ are going to take these comments on the chin without repudiating them in the strongest possible manner. The banks rhetoric is almost inciting riot and begging speculators to knock seven bales out of the Pound and the Gilt market. To quote our PM – ‘Calm down, dear!’