No one can be that happy about the quality of the economic data which has been submitted any of the mature countries of the world in the last few months. Even the US cannot be entirely satisfied that its economy is firing off 6 cylinders, despite the conundrum of a possibility of a FED rate hike in July. Industrial production is still in the doldrums and retail activity remains very patchy indeed. A rate hike in the summer is far from ‘slam-dunk’ because the vibes from other economies are far from encouraging. So there is a 34% chance of a hike according to the futures markets. However London has had a great day – at 4.21pm the FTSE is up 90 points at 6226! WOW! Why?
The EU Referendum polls have moved in favour of “REMAIN” 55% to 44%, with the fear factor working a treat fir Messrs Cameron & Osborne. Sterling rallied, which captured the imagination of investors looking to titivate in a very dull and unresponsive bank market – Barclays +3.4%, RBS +4.9%, HSBC +2.06%, Lloyds +2.7% and Standard Chartered +2.5%. Oil and mining have been dull as dishwater and drugs have been mixed with Astra +1.46% with the others failing really to come under starters’ orders. Retail has had terrific run on the rails with Tesco grabbing the yellow jersey – up 6.99%! This is despite the fact that 70 stores in Ireland are going on strike. Presumably there must be good vibes about its recovery process. M&S ahead of tomorrow’s numbers was only up 1%. Vodafone has been solid +0.3% and BT showing a bit more form – +2.1%.
Of those companies that have reported today De la Rue is up 4.5%, Kingfisher 3.25%, Homeserve +7.5%, UK Mail +7%, Hogg Robinson +1% and DMGT +1.5%. Only Card Factory slightly disappointed – down 2.75%. The Street of Dreams has come on to the bridle with the DOW currently up 200 points for no real reason apart the fact the market looked a tad oversold in somnolent trading conditions. My judgment has often been impaired, but I feel a correction in equities cum or ex-BREXIT! But for QE and no suitable alternate asset class, the correction could well be more pronounced.