TODAY’S FAYRE – BREXIT DISSIPATES OR DOES IT?

 

TODAY’S FAYRE – Tuesday, 21st June 2016

 

“I didn’t like the way he went away. 

That smile! It never came of being gay. 

Still he smiled—did you see him?—I was sure!

Perhaps because we gave him only bread 

And the wretch knew from that that we were poor. 

Perhaps because he let us give instead 

Of seizing from us as he might have seized. 

Perhaps he mocked at us for being wed,

Or being very young (and he was pleased 

To have a vision of us old and dead). 

I wonder how far down the road he’s got. 

He’s watching from the woods as like as not.”    

 

Robert Frost – poet – 1874-1963

 

   The level of enthusiasm and zest that commentators and pundits alike associated with every England team’s prospects for World and European Championships since the 1966 World Cup win, never ceases to amaze me. Apart from Sir Bobby Robson’s 1990 team, which reached the semi-final, England have been consistent in disappointing their fans.

I am so tired of hearing how well we play. Last night’s lamentable 0-0 effort against humble Slovakia was classic England! We failed consummately to do what needed to be done – score more goals than the opposition. That’s what the game is all about! Why Roy Hodgson changed a winning combination, few have fathomed out! Anyway it’s not all over! It is not beyond the bounds of probability for England to win Euro-2016!

 

To quote the excellent Chris Weston of IG in today’s blog – “It’s amazing to think Janet Yellen speaks tonight in front of the Senate Banking Panel as part of her two-day semi-annual testimony (what many of us used to call the Humphrey Hawkins lectures) in what has to be the most pointless speech’s for a Fed Chairman in recent memory. The markets have a myopic focus on one thing; The UK referendum vote!”

 

 

Everything in markets – positive or negative – is tainted with BREXIT, even to the point that it cannot be ruled out that the inclement weather will have BREXIT’S hallmark on it.

 

 

The apocalyptic fear generated by the establishment has been ridiculously exaggerated. So not surprisingly the ‘fear factor’ which has been generated by ‘REMAIN’S’ leaders has made a massive contribution to the supremely frothy level of uncertainty and volatility. I doubt that yesterday’s humungous rally of equities across the globe, especially highlighted in Europe, as the threat of BREXIT dissipated, may only be ‘Chapter One’ in this potentially drawn out financial merry-go-round. Yesterday the ‘toothy grin’ of Sir Richard Branson was brought in to play by ‘REMAIN.’ Though Sir Richard employs many people in the UK who pay tax, I am less than convinced that his personal wealth has been decimated by the UK tax regime.  Also the views of the opinionated Hungarian octogenarian, George Soros have attracted interest. He has clearly been asked to comment on the possibility of a re-run of his rape of the Pound, post the ERM in 1992, where it is alleged that he made one billion pounds out of the UK’s removal from the ERM. I am happy to be corrected but I doubt he pays much in the way of UK tax – so frankly I have little interest, apart from a passing one, as to what he has to say!

 

 

Moving away from perception to fact, yesterday the Street of Dreams dined out on the receding threat of BREXIT with pollsters and bookies implying ‘REMAIN’; is done and dusted.  I am not so sure, but in response their prognosis the DOW added 0.73%, the S&P 500 0.58% and the NASDAQ 0.77%. These markets did surrender some of their froth in the afternoon. Banks and energy stocks were particularly fruitful sectors. Yesterday the FTSE 100 added 3.1% – 182 points at 6204 – its highest one day rally since February, with banks (av 5%), house builders (Av 6%), oil and drugs (av 3%) ‘Gathering ye rose buds whilst ye may!’ Investors should not be too dismissive of the odd poll that still puts ‘LEAVE’ in the lead. I suspect there will be some added volatility especially in foreign exchange markets, where yesterday the Pound was a standard bearer – Cable $1.4664, €/$1.1335.  Crude oil had a better day – Nymex $49.19.  Gold lost a couple of bucks $1286.75 an ounce.

 

 

In Asia most bourses jumped on the BREXIT merry-go-round. The Shanghai Composite was the exception to the rule and was down 0.20% after lunch with the Hang Seng in credit to the tune of 0.48%.  The ASX closed up 0.33% with the NIKKEI enjoying a rare rally +0.1.28%. European bourses digested yesterday’s mammoth gains. At 8.25am the FTSE 100 was down 38 points.  Chemring got hammered on poor numbers – down 20% having initially been down 33%. Photo-Me also got clobbered – down 10%.  Whitbread’s sales were adequate if not spectacular as Mrs Brittain gets her feet under the table. We are likely to see plenty of volatility for the rest of the week, rather more so in the foreign exchange markets than equities. If a ‘REMAIN’ victory transpires then another rally could materialise. I suspect it will be short lived. Fundamentals like falling growth will come back in to play.

 

 

   

UK companies posting numbers – Tuesday – Photo-Me, Chemring, Petrofac, Whitbread PLC, Wednesday – Debenhams, Thursday – DS Smith, James Latham, Tesco (TS), Friday – Polar Capital.     US companies posting interim results this week – Tuesday – Lennar, Adobe Systems, KB Homes, Wednesday – Barnes & Noble, HB Fuller, Thursday – Sonic Corporation, Friday – Finish Line

     Economic data – Tuesday – US PMI, services, EU PMI manufacturing, Wednesday – UK public sector borrowing, UK gfk Consumer confidence, US existing home sales, Thursday – US New Home Sales

 

David Buik

Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & Co

+44 (0)20 7886 2775

Mobile – 0044 7788 144 877

Panmure Gordon & Co

One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF | United Kingdom

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: