TODAY’S FAYRE – POLITICS, DEAR BOY, POLITICS!

TODAY’S FAYRE –Thursday, 30th June 2016

 

  “O for a Muse of fire, that would ascend

The brightest heaven of invention,

A kingdom for a stage, princes to act

And monarchs to behold the swelling scene!

Then should the warlike Harry, like himself,

Assume the port of Mars; and at his heels,

Leash’d in like hounds, should famine, sword and fire

Crouch for employment. But pardon, and gentles all,

The flat unraised spirits that have dared

On this unworthy scaffold to bring forth

So great an object: can this cockpit hold

The vasty fields of France? Or may we cram

Within this wooden O the very casques

That did affright the air at Agincourt?

O, pardon! Since a crooked figure may

Attest in little place a million;

And let us, ciphers to this great accompt,

On your imaginary forces work.

Suppose within the girdle of these walls

Are now confined two mighty monarchies,

Whose high upreared and abutting fronts

The perilous narrow ocean parts asunder:

Piece out our imperfections with your thoughts;

Into a thousand parts divide on man.”

 

  William Shakespeare – poet & playwright– 1564-1616

     

Let’s draw a line under England’s abject performance in Nice against Iceland on Monday. I just thought I would lighten up and tell you a story about Roy Hodgson.  As you know I am a nutty Fulham fan. I’ll give Roy his due; he did a great job for Fulham – saved us from relegation and managed us in to the Europa final against Atletico Madrid. A cab driver friend of mine – Gary Chivers, the old Chelsea player, used to do a clipboard job for Roy on a Saturday afternoon plotting a player’s path during a game.  When Roy went to Liverpool, Gary was sacked by Mark Hughes as he understandably wanted his own people appointed.

    I asked Gary what Roy was like.  He was unequivocal in saying he was a delightful fellow whom the players really respected.  BUT he said, he was a good manager of a VERY average side. Gary said he wouldn’t last 6 months at Liverpool as managing players with flair was not his metier! He was right and that about says it all!  The same applied for England – a very moderate side! So glad for him that he was paid £3.25 million per annum for the last 3 years or so!!

 

On Tuesday morning I listened to an excellent presentation by Ben Page of IPSOS/MORI on the aftermath of the EU Referendum. Apart from the fact that the polls got it wrong again, there were two really interesting pieces of data. Firstly up until 4 months before the campaign only about 6% of the electorate showed much in the way of interest and in the weeks leading up to the vote, despite the ‘bally-who’ and bile only about 30% of the electorate was passionate about the outcome.

 

Consequently it is becoming increasingly clear that the REFERENDUM vote and its outcome had little to do with EU membership. It was a social inequality protest vote! London, Scotland and a couple of cities against the rest of the country, which has seen the rich get richer and the poor get poorer So any thought of another referendum for those suffering from sower grapes may find that there will be massive resistance to that suggestion, despite 4 million people signing a petition. The country will remain moribund and drowning in inertia until there is a new leader. BJ and Theresa May were the early installed favourites with Messrs Fox, Leadsom and Crabb having thrown their hat in to the ring or have been flagged up as contenders. Boris would be the people’s choice but many of their MPS seem reluctant to support him for treachery. Theresa May was not an obvious BREXITER. However she and the reluctant Michael Gove would be seen as unifiers. I suspect that had Sarah Vine’s email not hit the public domain Michael Gove would have remained silence, having always protested his lack of interest. The sooner someone is elected, the better for the country.

 

Well what comes around goes around! – Or does it? Certainly the FTSE 100 (+219 points 3.6% to 6360) has regained all its poise since 22nd June 2016, though for obvious reason the FTSE 250, which is more of a barometer of UK economic activity is still languishing 3% below pre BREXIT levels. Miners (Dollar related) cracked on as did some drug stocks. Persimmon, Barratt and others rallied between 6-9% – hopelessly oversold. Banks perked up a bit yesterday, but are likely to remain in the doldrums for some months. Equity markets, endorsed by a decent run on the rails by Wall Street have behaved entirely logically. Yesterday the three main indices added between 1.5% and 1.8%. However the Pound may well turn out to be the main barometer of economic progress. Personally I am much more inclined to keep an eye on its progress than any other indicator.

 

I must confess to being distraught that the pro-REMAIN press and media have been so negative in helping galvanise the country to meet the challenges of the future, which democracy has demanded. THIS IS FACT – We, in this country, need to stop talking recession in 4th quarter and get cracking to make this brave new dawn work. If the EU and UK give up the ghost there will be 500 million people will be incandescent with rage that the powers that be have made insufficient effort to make helpful contingency plans plus the required report. It is only 4 months ago that the Chancellor was extolling the virtues of the UK’S economy. So BREXIT is responsible for its total collapse? I am not buying that.

 

J-C Juncker and Tijesselbloem can bellow or blow raspberries at us as long as they like. Of course the EU seeks solidarity. However what is as plain to me as the nose on the end of my ugly face is that the people of UK have to eat, as do those in Europe; so to cut off one’s nose to spite one’s face strikes me as an act of folly. As far as the City of London is concerned the detractors will learn that after a few bumps along the way, there is 70 years of infrastructure in London. If Frankfurt, Paris or Dublin thinks they can usurp London’ prowess, dream on! It would take 20 years to build an adequate infrastructure to compete with London. Also MiFID2 would provide a “safety valve” that would allow the City to sell services into the EU from 2018. Also other EU countries, which currently ‘passported’ services into Britain, would also need to strike a deal and added: “Passporting” is not only a negotiable issue but is a two way issue. So a change in attitude is a pre-requisite! Let no one be in any doubt the EU has major problems – far greater than the UK’S – none more than the state of their banking sector, which is probably undercapitalised to the tune of €300 billion.

 

This morning the FTSE decided to consolidate and at 10.35am was up 5 points at 6365. Serco, John Wood and Tullow posted fairly neutral results. It’s the politics that are grabbing all the headlines today. I was amused to hear that Goldman Sachs was reviewing its ties with Sir Philip Green. Again his comments to Frank Field at the Select Committee hearing did his situation little credit. I think only a gargantuan cheque will deliver him out of the house of bondage!

 UK companies posting numbers – Thursday – Tullow, John Wood, Serco, Friday – Bellzone Mining

   US companies posting interim results this week – Thursday – ConAgra, Darden Restaurants, Constellation Brands, Friday – Ford (sales)     Economic data – Thursday – UK GDP final, Friday – US PMI manufacturing  

David Buik Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & Co +44 (0)20 7886 2775 Mobile – 0044 7788 144 877 Panmure Gordon & Co One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF | United Kingdom    
 

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