TODAY’S FAYRE

TODAY’S FAYRE – Friday, 16th September 2016

 

We do not wish anything to happen.

Seven years we have lived quietly,

Succeeded in avoiding notice,

Living and partly living.

There  have been oppression and luxury,

There have been poverty and licence,

There has been minor  injustice.

Yet we have gone on living,

Living and partly living.

Sometimes the corn has failed us,

Sometime the harvest is good,

One year is a year of rain,

Another a year of dryness,

One year the apples are abundant,

Another year the plums are lacking.

Yet we have gone on living,

Living and partly living.

We have kept the feasts, heard the masses,

We have brewed the beer and cider,

Gathered wood against the winter,

Talked at the corner of the fire,

Talked at the corner of streets,

Talked not always in whispers,

Living and partly living.

We have seen births, deaths and marriages,

We have  had various scandals,

We have been afflicted with taxes,

We have had laughter and gossip,

Several girls have disappeared

Unaccountably, and some not able to.

We have all had our private terrors,

Our particular shadows, our secret fears.

But now a great fear is upon us, a fear not of one but of many,

A fear like birth and death, when we see birth and death alone

In a void apart. We

Are afraid in  a fear which we cannot know, which we cannot face, which

none understands,

And our hearts are torn from us, our brains unskinned like the layers of

an onion, our selves are lost lost

In a final fear which none understands.”

 

 TS. ELIOT – poet & playwright – 1888-1965

 

US Presidential campaigns have always been great theatre even though we in the UK or in other parts of the world only view them from the peripheries.  Though the outcome will have a profound effect and possibly a terrifyingly significant influence on the global political stage, one can surely be forgiven for thinking that these two candidates leave something to be desired.  With Trump as much as 5% in the lead in a key state like Ohio a few days ago, maybe there is a much stronger protest vote against Wall Street and the establishment out there, similar to what happened in our EU Referendum vote in June, than many Americans believed. Hillary Rodham-Clinton keeps slipping on one banana skin after another with her economy of the truth. However I am told she will come with a late rattle on the rails with the Clinton team upping its game, using the well tested dissemination of “taking points” strategy.

 

I so hope that the stench of doping issues recently hovering in the direction of Sir Bradley Wiggins just turns out to be hot air. We need sporting icons without the hint of any stain on their characters.

 

I am so enjoying Middlesex being in the final mix for the county championship which will culminate with a final show down at Lord’s against Yorkshire, the reigning champions, whom I am told may be without Root and Bairstow. Both teams will also be looking over their shoulders at Somerset, which hopes to come with a rattle on the rails. This takes me back to the halcyon days of Mike Brearley in the early eighties and Mike Gatting in 1993 – memories to savour!

 

I find it hard to believe that Wall Street is so chilled out and relaxed at the prospect of having either Trump or Clinton as the 46th President of the USA.  One must surely assume that that prospect is priced in. Any positive outlook to Wall Street in the next quarter must come from next month’s 3rd quarter earnings season, M&A activity, the progress of the tech sector and from that weeping financial carbuncle – FED rate!! As regards the quality of the 3rd quarter earnings staring in October, I would not be encouraging onlookers to hold their breath in excitement. Yesterday’s data which included retail sales and PPI offered little encouragement to the idea that the US economy might be selecting another gear. The Phili-Fed and Initial Jobless claims were thankfully not discouraging.  

 

Apple’s shares rallied 3.4% on encouraging sales news of the iPhone7.. However Apple and other U.S. multinationals will face new curbs on tax loopholes under a rule imposed by Washington on Thursday, part of a scramble among governments worldwide to bolster their corporate tax bases. Acting shortly after a European Union grab for billions of dollars in back taxes from Apple, the U.S. Treasury said it was tightening restrictions on companies’ use of foreign tax credits to reduce what they owe in U.S. taxes. In the US Samsung is recalling 1 million Galaxy7s phones with battery faults

 

The DOW despite a few economic woes, kept its poise as the threat of higher rates receded – +0.99%, the S&P added 1.01% and the NASDAQ 1.47%, much of that gain courtesy of Apple. In London the two stocks that caught the imagination were Morrison and Next, both with varying success.  The former saw its shares up 5% thanks to a market improvement in sales. Next was down 2%. The Hinckley Point deal was all the rage.  The fact that we cannot afford is of little consequence as the political importance is huge.  As we are leaving the EU we need friends and the bigger the better. China ticks that box! EDF will do well. GE wants a piece of the action and will earn £1.44 billion building reactors. The major beneficiary will be UK PLC with the creation of thousands of jobs and hopefully all ‘Doubting Thomases’ will be placated over security issues.  

 

Deutsche Bank shares fell sharply in extended trading on Thursday as this bank rebuffed the idea that this claim of $14 billion against allegations of mis-selling mortgage securities after receiving an initial claim for that figure from the US Department of Justice.  Deutsche Bank shares fell in New York by as much as 7.4% after hours to $13.67, Deutsche Bank has no intention of settling these potentially gargantuan civil claims anywhere near the number cited. The negotiations are only just beginning. The bank expects that they will lead to an outcome similar to those of peer banks which have settled at materially lower amounts. However CEO John Cryan expressed a desire to settle outstanding legal claims sooner rather than later. This further wave of adverse publicity is most unwelcome.


Asia had a mixed session with the NIKKEI closing up 0.7% and the ASX up 1.08%.  After lunch the Shanghai Composite was down 0.69% with the Hang Seng on good terms with itself – up 0.63%. At 8.56am the FTSE was down 16 points.  The banks were affected by the beating Deutsche Bank too – down 6.41%.  Barclays was down 1.5%, RBS was easier by 4% and Lloyds by 1%.

 

 

Economic data this week – Friday – US Michigan Consumer Confidence

 

 

David Buik


Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & co
+44 (0)20 7886 2775


Mobile – 0044 7788 144 877


Panmure Gordon & Co


One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF

 

David Buik

Market Commentator

 

D +44 (0)20 7886 2775

Panmure Gordon & Co 
One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF | United Kingdom
www.panmure.com

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