TODAY’S FAYRE – DEUTSCHE BANK

TODAY’S FAYRE – Tuesday, 27th September 2016

 

“As she laughed I was aware of becoming involved

in her laughter and being part of it, until her

teeth were only accidental stars with a talent

for squad-drill. I was drawn in by short gasps,

inhaled at each momentary recovery, lost finally

in the dark caverns of her throat, bruised by

the ripple of unseen muscles. An elderly waiter

with trembling hands was hurriedly spreading

a pink and white checked cloth over the rusty

green iron table, saying: “If the lady and

gentleman wish to take their tea in the garden,

if the lady and gentleman wish to take their

tea in the garden …” I decided that if the

shaking of her breasts could be stopped, some of

the fragments of the afternoon might be collected,

and I concentrated my attention with careful

subtlety to this end.”

 

  1. S. Eliot – poet & playwright – 1888-1965

 

Sam Allardyce – England Manager – what are you doing? – Just a few weeks into the job and it sounds like you are allegedly filling your boots elsewhere with more filthy lucre and at the same time talking disparagingly about the previous regime. If you weren’t just in the job, I would hope the FA would remove you forthwith on moral grounds alone!

 

Hats off to Middlesex CCC for winning the county Championship!  ‘The Three Sabres’ have been consistent all season and deserved to win! However had you watched Sky Sports coverage of the game there was only ever one county in the race – Yorkshire! I know Jason Gillespie is considered to be a cricketing icon coach and he has been brilliant for the White Rose for three years, but the presentation was hardly balanced. I thought Bairstow and Root should have played. Keeping them fresh as contracted players for Bangladesh is hardly a plausible reason.

It’s such a pity that Sir Craig Oliver, with the ink hardly having had time to dry on his investiture certificate, found it necessary to ‘dish the dirt’ in such a graceless manner so soon after the EU Referendum rout! Whilst he castigated Messrs May, Johnson and Gove for their supposed treachery, let us not forget that ‘REMAIN’S’ Referendum battle was an unmitigated disaster and you, Sir Craig, were the engine driver of this calamitous campaign! We all know that this is the best shot you will have of making some hard cash from this book – nonetheless character assassination is rarely an attractive occupational hazard!

 

ECB President Mario Draghi popped his head above the parapet in suggesting the EU play hard ball with UK over trade negotiations. Pipe down, Old Bean and attend to your Central bank issues and the crumbling EU economies. You could start with Deutsche Bank and hopefully reassure us that all is well!

 

Yesterday bourses in Europe lost between 1.2% and 2% and in the US they fell by an average of 0.9%. Why? Concern continued to prevail about banks, with Deutsche Bank very much at the top of that list. Deutsche shares fell by 7.5% to €10.55. It has recovered a smidgen this am to €10.64. I feel sorry for CEO John Cryan who inherited a hospital pass, when he stepped up to the plate in June 2016. These shares have lost significant value – down from €39 in January 2014 and €23.51 a year ago to €10.64 – down 71% and 54% respectively. Just to put some meat on the bone in July 2007 Deutsche Bank’s share price was €99.60!

 

What markets cannot cope with is uncertainty and that sensation is there in spades, with John Cryan, probably very frustrated in being able to say very little. Merkel got out her wooden spoon and stirred the pot of turmoil; in saying no official help would be forthcoming. Any rights issue will have to come from the private sector. The market needs confirmation that all is well. It is taken as read that Deutsche had greater involvement in derivative trading than any other international bank – well that is the perception. Untying that balance sheet in an unreceptive market and selling assets is difficult to achieve. There is little doubt that more capital is required. For the sake of the stability of markets DB needs to get on with it, in the hope that the contents of ‘Pandora’s Box’ are containable. Frankly I don’t believe Merkel if there is a real problem. Germany could not let DB go down. It would be a greater catastrophe than Lehman Bros. WE NEED CLARITY!

 

In 1986, outside of the US, Deutsche Bank was the finest bank in the land, respected by all. It bought Morgan Grenfell and Pember & Boyle and then added Banker’s Trust to its portfolio to make real challenges in the ‘Big Bang’ arena. Sir John Craven DB very successfully in London and the Vorstadt was brilliantly orchestrated by Rolf Breuer. Edson Mitchell’s services had been acquired from Merrill Lynch to run the investment bank and Deutsche was flying. Sadly Mitchell was killed in a plane crash when at his professional zenith, leaving a wife, family and a mistress! Josef Ackermann succeeded Breuer and was held in high esteem. But the credit crisis took its toll. He was replaced by joint CEOS – Anshu Jain and Jurgen Fitschen. That never works. Cracks, consisting of financial misdemeanours and gargantuan losses started to transpire and the rest is history!

 

The plight of Deutsche Bank could have far reaching ramifications. The banking sector took stick globally with London’s HSBC, Barclays, RBS, Lloyds and Standard Chartered shedding £23 billion in value yesterday. This is not good news for the economy. Banks in New York and Europe also suffered the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.  

 

Other news was light yesterday with Monarch looking for investors but insisting all was well. Aldi saw sales up 12% but profits in a price war down 1.8% in the last quarter. CBOE agreed to £3.2 billion for BATS Global. Mind your eye LSE – CME and CBOE are on the march.

There were some solid results this morning – none more pleasing that Boohoo.com – flagged up in May 2015 by Panmure’s Mike Stewart at 23p – today standing at 97.5p! At the time of writing the FTSE 100 is up just 7 points having opened up +40 points.

 

UK companies posting results this week – Tuesday – AG Barr, Close Brothers, Card Factory, HIS Markit, Boohoo, United Utilities (TS), Thos Cook (TS), Mediclinic (TS), Wednesday – J Sainsbury (TS), PZ Cussons, Smiths Group, AA, Petropavlovsk, Thursday – Euromoney, Vernalis, Merlin Entertainment, Imperial Brands, DMGT, WS Atkins. Friday – Trinity Mirror (TS)

 

US companies posting results this week – Tuesday MaxCyte, Nike, Wednesday Pepsico, ConAgra, Costco.

 

Economic data this week – Tuesday UK final GDP, Thursday – UK Consumer Confidence, US GDP and US goods trade balance, Friday – US Chicago PMI

 

 

David Buik

Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & co D +44 (0)20 7886 2775

Mobile – 0044 7788 144 877

Panmure Gordon & Co

One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF

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