TODAY’S FAYRE

TODAY’S FAYRE – Wednesday 5th October 2016

 

“Think’st thou I saw thy beauteous eyes,

Suffus’d in tears, implore to stay;

And heard unmov’d thy plenteous sighs,

Which said far more than words can say?

Though keen the grief thy tears exprest,

When love and hope lay both o’erthrown;

Yet still, my girl, this bleeding breast

Throbb’d, with deep sorrow, as thine own.

But, when our cheeks with anguish glow’d,

When thy sweet lips were join’d to mine;

The tears that from my eyelids flow’d

Were lost in those which fell from thine.

Thou could’st not feel my burning cheek,

Thy gushing tears had quench’d its flame,

And, as thy tongue essay’d to speak,

In sighs alone it breath’d my name.

And yet, my girl, we weep in vain,

In vain our fate in sighs deplore;

Remembrance only can remain,

But that, will make us weep the more.

Again, thou best belov’d, adieu!

Ah! if thou canst, o’ercome regret,

Nor let thy mind past joys review,

Our only hope is, to forget!

 

George Gordon, Lord Byron – poet – 1788-1824

 

I sincerely hope that the FA gives Gareth Southgate a reasonable run as England manager. Firstly I like the cut of his jib. Maybe I am naïve but he seems a decent, articulate clean cut lad, who has the courage of his convictions and means what he says. He loves the game but dislikes the business of football. With that attitude, he ticks many boxes for me, despite lacking major international managerial experience. Give him a real go!

 

Eoin Morgan can consider himself really lucky to be retained as England’s ODI captain having refused to tour in Bangladesh. He picks up the cudgel again next year in India. Despite thinking he’s a very calm operator and regardless of being a Middlesex supporter, I would have binned his services.

 

Now that Rupert Sewell, as Lord ‘M’, is out of ‘Victoria’, this costume drama seems to me like the bore of the year!

 

It was a strange session in London yesterday – unfathomable and seemingly full of ‘sound and fury.’ The FTSE 100, as has been chronicled in every paper, blog, TV screen briefly touched its all-time high of 7123, before easing back and closing at 7074 – up 90 points on the day thanks to an ambivalent reception on the Street of Dreams, which was attempting to digest a rather hawkish outlook on interest rates. Wall Street’s main indices fell by an average of 0.3%. Yesterday’s dramatic rally followed the 82 point rally on Monday.

 

I get the 75% of FTSE 100 companies’ earnings being Dollar based, the Pound having fallen 18% since November 2015 – to its lowest level for 30 years. Also clearly exporters have been buoyed by the fall in the pound. This has been reflected in yesterday’s rise of the FTSE 250 (+0.87%). I further understand that some bears have been brutally squeezed out. I know there is now some clarification over BREXIT. Yes, interest rates are historically very low. Many equity luminaries think that equities are a safe haven until such times as interest rates go up. Though the ECB is rumoured to be tapering back it supply of QE by E10 billion a month and it is unlikely that rates will go up in the US until December and then probably by only 25 basis points, there is little likelihood of any major change in Central bank thinking in the foreseeable future. Apart from the usual suspects, mining, oil, drugs and yesterday some banks, being the recipient of a major ‘love-in’ the house building sector had another terrific run on the rails, thanks to government policy to boost house building, with other infrastructure projects likely to manifest itself post the Chancellor’s autumn statement in November. Decent UK manufacturing data will help the cause.

 

Despite taking all those issues in to account, mature indices look fully priced to me. I further accept that the IMF tells us that it has knocked 0.1% off its global forecast for this year, taking the figure to 3.1 per cent, and made a similar revision for the 2017 outlook, taking the number to 3.4 per cent, in its latest world economic outlook report. However it still believes that the UK will be the best performing economy in Europe, despite the Lagarde threats of ‘Sodom and Gomorrah!’ Also it seems unlikely that corporate profits for the 3rd quarter, which will be posted in earnest starting next week, will increase very much, if at all. Whilst investors accept there are no other attractive asset classes, they will be keeping a nervous watching brief in the weeks to come. Finally the US election on 8th November could bring a bag of bad news for the market, particularly a Trump victory.

 

This morning Tesco posted figures for the last half year. They look Ok – Group sales were up 3.3% and UK like-for-like sales growth of 0.6% and Group like-for-like sales growth of 1.0%. Let’s hope litigation does not spoil progress.

 

UK companies posting results this week – Wednesday – Tesco, Topps Tiles, Thursday – DFS Furniture, EasyJet, Centamin, Dunelm, Friday – Xpower

 

   US companies posting results – Tuesday –Micron Technology, Darden Restaurants, Wednesday – Constellation Brands, Monsanto, Thursday – Costco, Ruby Tuesday – Friday – Angie’s List Inc

 

 

 

 

Economic data this week – Wednesday – BRC Retail sales, UK Manufacturing output and Industrial production, Thursday – ECB meeting, Friday – RICS & Halifax House prices and US Non-farm payrolls, unemployment

 

 

David Buik

Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & co D +44 (0)20 7886 2775

Mobile – 0044 7788 144 877

Panmure Gordon & Co

One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF

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