TODAY’S FAYRE

TODAY’S FAYRE – Sunday 13th November 2016

“Have you forgotten yet?…
For the world’s events have rumbled on since those gagged days,
Like traffic checked while at the crossing of city-ways:
And the haunted gap in your mind has filled with thoughts that flow
Like clouds in the lit heaven of life; and you’re a man reprieved to go,
Taking your peaceful share of Time, with joy to spare.
But the past is just the same–and War’s a bloody game…
Have you forgotten yet?…
Look down, and swear by the slain of the War that you’ll never forget.

Do you remember the dark months you held the sector at Mametz–
The nights you watched and wired and dug and piled sandbags on parapets?
Do you remember the rats; and the stench
Of corpses rotting in front of the front-line trench–
And dawn coming, dirty-white, and chill with a hopeless rain?
Do you ever stop and ask, ‘Is it all going to happen again?’

Do you remember that hour of din before the attack–
And the anger, the blind compassion that seized and shook you then
As you peered at the doomed and haggard faces of your men?
Do you remember the stretcher-cases lurching back
With dying eyes and lolling heads–those ashen-grey
Masks of the lads who once were keen and kind and gay?

Have you forgotten yet?…
Look up, and swear by the green of the spring that you’ll never forget.” 

 

 Siegfried Sassoon – poet & soldier – 1887- 1915

 

The earth shattering result of the momentous US Presidential election certainly eclipsed the EU Referendum in terms of political influence. The turnout was disappointingly low – 57.6%. That was higher than 2012 when it was 54.9%, but nonetheless considering the visceral publicity it attracted, that turnout figure was parsimonious. What I do not understand is why the defeated loyal followers of Hillary Clinton and those that could not be bothered to cast their vote are so indignant at the result. Democracy has been served to the majority. All one can say is that there is a natural correlation between the EU Referendum and The Clinton Campaign. Both election campaigns were appallingly badly run and both elections were convenient springboards for millions to protest against the establishment and social injustice, despite some astonishingly unattractive antics by President-Elect Trump.

 

Now that Donald J Trump is President-elect, you would have thought that tasteless bureaucrats such as JC- Juncker, who clearly was not schooled in the World of 2016 diplomacy would show a bit more respect for the incoming regime. Mr Trump may not exactly be M Juncker’s obvious first choice to his dinner table on a Saturday night. However M Juncker needs reminding that the EU is crumbling politically and is not doing much better economically. So he should keep a civil tongue in his head and adopt a pragmatic and courteous approach towards the US, if he wants to achieve a satisfactory conclusion to any trade deals. The so called entente-cordial between Trump and Putin will need some explanation. I hope this is just press fluff as Trump is not yet President. We much look forward to seeing who is in Trump’s administration. Will JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon be US Treasury Secretary? Will Newt Gingrich or Chris Christie be Secretary of State?

 

PM May will need to put her best foot forward in attempt to secure decent trading arrangements between the UK and the US, despite unhelpful comments made by some German politician, Axel Schafer, suggesting that the UK was delusional in thinking it could do so.

 

Jake Gyllenhaal & Amy Adams put in fantastic performance in Tom Ford’s ‘Nocturnal Animals.’ This film is based on the Austin Wright’s novel about a woman named Susan who receives a book manuscript from ex-husband Edward, whom she left twenty years prior. The story shows us what is happening in Susan’s real life, as well as the narrative of the book. This film has everything from violence to intrigue to deceit.  This is only Tom Ford’s second feature film following in the footsteps of ‘A Single Man.’ This film could be knocking on the door for a few awards.

 

After the initial meltdown in the small hours of Wednesday morning, resulting in the DOW futures surrendering 800 points and the FTSE futures 285 points at its blackest moment, equity markets suddenly found there might initially be some positive things for business from the embryonic Trump Presidency. Firstly infrastructure expenditure to rebuild decayed cities could see billion being spent and a substantial cut in corporation tax could be hugely beneficial particularly if large corporations who have been squirrelling away billions of dollars of taxation abroad repatriate these funds. 

 

Of course it did not take long for bond market geeks to realise that they were likely to see a slew of issues, maybe as much as a $1 trillion, as a result of the borrowing that would be required. Obviously yields in the long end of the market headed north. 10-year Treasury yield have increased from 1.6% to 2.15% in the past 6 weeks – up 12 pips in the last week alone. The threat of a FED rate increase in December will have aided and abetted the violence of the move. That is a measurable increase by any standards. There will be wounds being licked. Add the threat of inflation to this move and bond yields may continue to increase for some time. 

 

After a week of relentless activity, US markets enjoyed a great week of relief renaissance, apart from the NASDAQ, as Trump appears to be ambivalent towards Silicon Valley. The S&P added 3.64% and the Dow Reached its all-time record on Thursday. Also Stocks in US enjoyed their best week since 2014. When companies such as Caterpillar added 7% in a day and US Steel 17%, confidence must be on the up. Up until Wednesday evening the FTSE 100 was flying in concert with its North America cousins. However it surrendered 3% in the last two days, much of the ‘pull-back’ being due to the fall in the Dollar and Sterling’s strength. Consequently mining, oil, drugs, and tobacco sectors took a bit of a clattering. Oil dropped in value by a smidgen under 3% last week and with some risk back on the table it is not surprising that gold tumbled by 5.4% to $1233 an ounce. European stocks gained over 2.7% last week – purely a relief rally with the DAX and the CAC only having 30 and 40 component stocks which are not that Dollar orientated. The NIKKEI in Japan also added 2.7% with many investors seeing some value in the Trump administration’s early policies, which should be good for global business. 

 

On the domestic front M&S posted horrible numbers and the contingency plans to stop the rot by cutting costs and closing 60 branches and slashing overseas interests is not enough. Fashions are dowdy and are in need of attention. CEO Steve Rowe must know this.  M&S shares have fallen all by 35% in the last year. M&S also needs to clear up the ongoing spat with its suppliers which is creating gaps on its shelves – not a pretty site. Many felt that AXA’S Henri de Castries was scheduled to replace Douglas Flint as chairman of HSBC.  That idea may have gone in on hold as de Castries is rumoured to covet a decent position in a Sarkozy or Juppe administration. I hope HSBC don’t hang around at his beck and call. Maybe HSBC will turn to Jonathan Symonds.



UK companies posting numbers this week – Monday – Taylor Wimpey, William Hill, Lonmin, Tuesday – EasyJet, Enterprise Inns, McCarthy & Stone,  Land Securities, TalkTalk, Meggitt, Card Factory, Vodafone, First Group, Premier Foods, Amec Foster, Crest Nicholson, Wednesday – British Land, Barratt Development, ICAP, Fenner, Speedy Hire, Aggreko, Thursday – Majestic Wines, Royal Mail, Investec, WS Atkins, Johnson Matthey, Manchester United, Friday – Electrocomponents

 

US Companies posting interim results today – Tuesday – Beazer, Dick’s Sporting Goods, TJX, Wednesday – Target, L-Brands, Cisco Systems, Thursday – Staples, Best Buy, Ross Stores, Gap, 

 

 

Economic data this week – Monday – US Federal Budget, Tuesday – UK CPI & PPI, Wednesday – UK Employment data, US Industrial production, Thursday – UK Retail Sales, ECB Meeting

 

David Buik


Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & co
+44 (0)20 7886 2775


Mobile – 0044 7788 144 877


Panmure Gordon & Co


One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF

 

David Buik]]6

Market Commentator

 

D +44 (0)20 7886 2775

Panmure Gordon & Co 
One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF | United Kingdom
www.panmure.com

 

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