Simon French, Chief Economist of Panmure Gordon & Co clarifies the situation in the French Election in saying that ‘the dynamics in round 2 are totally different to the Trump/Clinton and Brexit/Remain elections, where pollsters posted a 2-4% gap. The latest polling suggests Le Pen is 24bp behind. She will need to hoover up a mass of socialist votes from Melenchon and Hamon to have any chance – not an easy task with Fillon, Melenchon and Hamon ‘nailing their respective flags to the Marcon mast!’ While she may get a few of the disenchanted, she is unlikely to get as many as she would require under a run-off vs Fillon who was more of a Thatcherite in outlook.’
As I have already said France loathes change. There may be a huge amount of ‘huffing and puffing’, but little it terms of radical change will be achieved. Simon French goes on to say ‘As for the UK, Macron is a slight negative regarding Brexit as he is a Europhile who wants to do “more Europe”. I wouldn’t overstate the impact as it was already going to be a tough gig for the UK to get a credible trade deal. For equities and GBP the “safe haven story” of the UK is slightly diluted by Macron, but again it is not seismic.’
At 8.35am the FTSE is up 125 points (+1.4%), the DAX 250 points and the CAC 200 – astonishing! Expect some sort of a pull-back soon. This rally seems unjustified.