TODAY’S FAYRE – Wednesday, 7th June 2017

 

ALONG the field as we came by

A year ago, my love and I,

The aspen over stile and stone

Was talking to itself alone.

 

‘Oh who are these that kiss and pass?

A country lover and his lass;

Two lovers looking to be wed;

And time shall put them both to bed,

 

But she shall lie with earth above,

And he beside another love.’

And sure enough beneath the tree

There walks another love with me,

 

And overhead the aspen heaves

Its rainy-sounding silver leaves;

And I spell nothing in their stir,

But now perhaps they speak to her,

 

And plain for her to understand

They talk about a time at hand

When I shall sleep with clover clad,

And she beside another lad.”

 

AE Housman – poet – 1859 –1936

 

I just cannot wait for this truly awful election campaign to be concluded this Thursday evening. Business needs a result – some stability. I just cannot see Labour, despite Sir Kier Starmer having the brain of an overgrown melon, providing the necessary continuity and knowledge to see these very tricky negotiations through the next 2-5 years – no chance after two!  David Davis, I am confident will drive a sensible course of diplomacy once the rhetoric has calmed down. The idea of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the accident-prone Diane Abbott or Lyn Brown confidently striding along Downing Street is the stuff of what nightmares emanate from.

 

If the two main parties’ manifestos had just included the economy, BREXIT and security, the country might have enjoyed a robust campaign over 3 weeks, which was all that was required. As it is both main parties came ‘off-piste’ and the government virtually forgot what the election was called for. Also I felt that Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill displayed a serious lack of judgement in organising a 7-week campaign – ludicrous decision with so many banana skins to slide on! The BREXIT debate has been all but non-existent. However all we have frustratingly been allowed to indulge in is a phoney war. Let’s be candid the visceral rhetoric on both sides has to cease. The EU needs the UK. Even though many say the UK is irrelevant to the EU a trade surplus of €40 billion is not to be sniffed at. Replacing that kind of solid large and regular business could not take place overnight – folly to cut off your nose to spite your face.

 

Though I am a passionate BREXITEER, immigration, apart from insisting on having our borders properly manned to keep undesirables and ‘riff-raff’ out, is not on my agenda at all.  We need good immigration to maintain our public service and to provide innovation in technology. To think net immigration can be reduced to ‘tens of thousands’ is no more than fanciful. My main requirement is to keep the ECJ out of our final decisions. BREXIT will be sensible – not hard or soft!

 

 

Finally just to end on an enjoyably provocative note, Paris has NO Chance of being a major financial centre, despite the overtures of President Macron, Michel Barnier and Christian Noyer, who intend to offer tax breaks for those who come to work in Paris. The infrastructure is not there nor is the expertise. The Paris establishment has already been warned in words of one syllable not to mess with clearing – the majority of it is already efficiently executed in London. People may not be aware that banks and financial houses have always had the option to clear with Deutsche Boerse or the London Clearing House – the latter has ALWAYS been favoured.  If France messes with the status quo, just as an act of retribution against BREXIT, trust me the US will be the beneficiary. The US is the biggest player and London Clearing is all but the largest insurance company in the world, guaranteeing delivery, it would be folly to show dissent and breaking it up!

 

I am beginning to feel very uncomfortable about the dismissal of James Comey from the FBI. He is reputed to have told Sessions he didn’t want to be alone with Trump after being unnerved by his request to end an FBI inquiry National Intelligence guru James Clapper says Watergate ‘ could pale’ into insignificance in comparison with Trump and the Russia scandal. The former US spook chief attacked the sharing of intelligence with Putin and says firing of James Comey ‘inexcusable.’

I went to see the second of Opera Holland Park’s production – Mozart’s ‘Don Giovanni.’ It was set on a cruise ship and the production was very effective. There was some great singing from the Don (Ashley Riches), Leporello (John Savournin) and Donna Elvira (Victoria Simmonds). It was a wonderfully colourful production, which the violent weather failed to ruin! 

 

As investors and dealers remain in mesmerising ‘election’ torpor, markets continue to be dull and there is so little to write about. It seems that punters are convinced of some sort of Tory majority. If Mrs May is returned to power I hope she not only adopts a conciliatory approach to BREXIT but also goes in to bat for business.  No need to go mad about lowering corporation tax.  Better to invest in bold infrastructure spending or investment, which is all but extinct. Borrowing for good reasons is fine but profligate waste in many departments is very unacceptable.

 

 

US markets closed as follows with performances YTD – DOW: 21,136 -0.23% +6.951% S&P: 2,429 -0.28% +8.509% NASDAQ: 5,856 -0.36% +20.42%. Asian markets were also somnolent with oil the main driver. Towards the close they performed as follows with YTD achievements – NIKKEI: 20,013 +0.16% + 4.714% HANG SENG: 26,000 -0.02% +18.183% CHINA: 3,535 +1.21% +6.814% ASX: 5,671 +0.07% +0.102%. At 10.10am the FTSE 100 was up 15 points at 7540, having opened just below the Plimsoll line.

 

 

UK companies posting numbers this week – Wednesday – RPC Group, Workspace Group, Thursday – Audio Boom, FlyBe, CMC Markets, Boohoo, Friday – Fuller Smith & Turner

 

 

Economic data this week – Wednesday – BRC Shop Index, NIESR GDP, Thursday – US Initial Jobless Claims, Friday – RICS House Prices, UK industrial Production, UK construction, UK Consumer Inflation

 

 David Buik

 

Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & Co

  +44 (0)20 7886 2775

Mobile – 0044 7788 144 877

Panmure Gordon & Co

One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF ​

 

 

David Buik

Market Commentator

 

D +44 (0)20 7886 2775

Panmure Gordon & Co  One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF | United Kingdom www.panmure.com

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