Monthly Archives: August 2018

MARKET ACTIVITY & EUROPEAN OPENING CALLS FOR 17th August 2018

Europe bounced back after a vituperative session Wednesday

 

FTSE CLOSE +58 (+0.78%) at 7558 – DAX +0.70% at 12248, CAC down +0.94%% at 5354 – U.K. stocks snap 5-day skid lower as energy and commodity shares rebound. Positive sentiment reappeared as Turkey’s currency crisis showed signs of easing, and as the prospect of new talks between the U.S. and China on trade gave some cause for optimism globally.

Kingfisher same-store sales at B&Q in the UK and Ireland rose 3.6% in the three months to 31 July. Comparable trade at Screwfix, which sells to professionals, rose by 5.5%. 1st Q sales hit by wet & snowy weather across Europe, were down 4%. Share closed down 4.8%

 

The UK’S ONS figures also showed that retail sales rose by 3.5% in the year to July. On the three-month measure for May to July, sales rose 2.1%, the strongest three months since February 2015.

Across on Wall Street –

 

DJIA +1.58%%, S&P 500 +0.79%%, NASDAQ +0.42% – They day belonged to retail

WALMART shares soar 10%, boosted by 40% US e-commerce sales growth More shoppers spent more per trip during the second quarter. Adjusted earnings per share: $1.29 vs. (E)$1.22. Revenue: $128.03bn vs. (E) $125.97bn * Same-store sales in the U.S. 4.5% vs. (E) 2.4%

JC PENNEY went on to the naughty step to join Macy’s with net sales for the 2nd quarter fell 7.5% to $2.76 billion, missing the $2.86 billion estimate The decline in sales was primarily due to 141 store closures in fiscal 2017. Shares down 24%!!

 

NORSTROM – Revenue climbed 7.1 percent to $4.07 billion from a year ago, ahead of an expected $3.96 billion in sales. Profit up from $110m to $162m – shares up 13%

 

 

In ASIA bourses showed signs of impairing its initial losses, though Shanghai remained in the doldrums – ASX +0.13, Shanghai -0.39%, Hang Seng +0.57%, Nikkei +0.34%

 

 

Bonds – Japan 0.10%, Germany 0.32%, France 0.68%, UK 1.24%, Spain 1.44%, Portugal 1.83%, US 3.05%, Italy 3.12%, Greece 4.26%

 

Cable $1.2716, €/£0.8948, €/$1.1381, $/Y110.84 – Gold $1183.10 –   Nymex $65.45, Brent $71.41 

 

Opening calls FTSE +2 at 7558, DAX -2 at 12235 , CAC -3  at 5346 , DJIA futures +62 at 25620

 

75% of retail investors lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

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MARKET ACTIVITY & EUROPEAN OPENING CALLS 17th August 2018

FTSE CLOSE -113 (-1.49%) at 7497 – DAX -1.58% at 12161, CAC down 1.82% at 5305 – It was the unsettling political and economic situation in Turkey that significantly unsettled equity and bond markets. Mining stocks were clattered – Anglo American down over 6% and even BATS were 2% easier. 3iii was 3% lower. Contagion from the Turkish crisis was triggered sharp reverses in EMs and in Europe. Erdogan threatened to ban Apple iphones.   Insufficient action taken on hiking rates to prevent continuing fall of the Lira, though after the iPhone sanction and help from Qatar the Lira rallied 3.8% against the Dollar. Banks were friendless in the ring as they were in Europe with Deutsche-2.5%, Barclays -2.2%, HSBC -1,4% UniCredit -2% and BNP -0.9% surrendering more ground.  

 

DJIA -1.07%, S&P 500 -0.76%, NASDAQ -1.23% – DJIA posted a 5-day losing streak, but losses were not so virulent

 

Again it’s the threat of contagion from the Turkish crisis was the main worry on Wall Street. Of course, much of the Middle East’s economy will experience a ‘knock-on-effect’ as Turkey and its neighbours borrow humungous amounts of Dollars. Inflation in Turkey is at 15%, 10-year bonds yield 20% and official rates are at 17.75%+ – an unappetising economic scene! Hence emerging markets look under the cosh and the mature stock markets suffer in concert with the negative sentiment that prevails around the world.

 

 

In ASIA bourses showed signs of impairing its initial losses – ASX-0.12%, Shanghai-0.87%, Hang Seng -0.61%, Nikkei -0.20%

 

 

Bonds – Japan 0.10%, Germany 0.31%, France 0.67%, UK 1.23%, Spain 1.44%, Portugal 1.83%, US 2.86%, Italy 3.16%, Greece 4.20%

 

Cable $1.2716, €/£0.8945, €/$1.1379, $/Y110.77 – Gold $1178.70 –   Nymex $65.06, Brent $71.02 – oil falls nearly 3%

 

UK companies posting results t0day – CLS Holdings, Kingfisher, Marshalls, Kaz Minerals

 

US companies posting results t0day – Nvidia, America’s Car-Mart, AMAT, Nordstrom, Walmart, JC Penney

 

Economic data posted today – UK retail sales, US Housing Data

 

Opening calls FTSE +21 at 7518, DAX +47 at 12210, CAC +14 at 5319, DJIA futures +124 at 25286

 

75% of retail investors lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

 

MARKET REFLECTIONS FOR MORNING OF 14th AUGUST 2018

MARKET REFLECTION ON MORNING OF 14th AUGUST 2018

In the past few weeks it is political issues that have dominated markets – equities, bonds and foreign exchange – rather than earnings, which have been satisfactory, M&A activity or economic data. Markets seem to be oblivious to the awful BREXIT impasse that currently prevails and the Trump tweets on Iran, Russia and Turkey have certainly caused more than just a ripple by a pebble thrown in to a pond.

Turkey, I think is a much greater problem than many people care to admit.  Forget Trump and his sanctions for not releasing Pastor Andrew Brunson.  The economy is in rags, clearly having over-heated, Property has fallen off the cliff. All this makes for a toxic cocktail, which has seen the Turkish Lira fall 30% in the last year, 18% last Friday and 6% yesterday, despite rather a luke-warm effort from its central bank to prop it up. Turkey’s problems are not a local issue. The on-going-effect is contagion! The machinations in Turkey are weighing heavily on emerging markets. It could adversely affect the Middle East, making it even more politically and economically unstable, than it currently is! Turkey has a population of 79.5 million. It was a booming economy a couple of years ago. It is now hanging in rags and President Erdogan has lost a strong ally in the US, due to his intransigence and his contempt for human rights.

European banks have €150bln exposure to Turkey.  Short-term borrowing costs have spiked to 2008 levels 2-year government debt now yielding 25%, corporate debt 70% GDP!

The 47-year-old Elon Musk is not a man to be trifled with. Yesterday he tells us that Saudi Arabia is one of his backers for his initiative to take Tesla private again. This company is valued at $60 billion with its share price have risen form $181 a share in December 2016 to $356 yesterday. The market has paid quite a premium for expectations from these electric cars. Perhaps Mr Musk thinks it will be easier to get on with the job when out of the public’s eye, in terms of its balance sheet and quarterly earnings.

You have to ‘hand it’ to 71-year-old Peter Wood, if Bain Capital complete a £1.3 billion acquisition of eSure. Mr Wood stands to make £350 million out of the deal to add to the not inconsiderable amounts he made initially selling Direct Line to RBS and then the subsequent IPO. The world loves a winner!

We are all waiting with bated breath to hear of Mike Ashley’s plans for House of Fraser. How many of the 59 shops will survive? He says he hopes to keep 80% open! What will happen to the pension scheme, which to date Mr Ashley is disinclined to be responsible for.  Apparently, Edinburgh Woollen Mills’ Philip Day was in the mix to buy but his £50m bid plus a few ancillary bits was too little too late.

Yesterday Bayer shares plunged 10% on issues concerning a cancer ruling. This followed in the wake of Monsanto’s weed-killer pay-out.

The Government’s house building figures were pitiful. 217,000 new homes were built in 2016-17, two-thirds of the government target of 300,000. These include conversions of existing buildings.

At 10.05am the FTSE 1q00 was up just 2 points at 7642 having been up 20 points in early skirmishes.  There is no volume out there and the holiday mood is in over-drive. Antofagasta shares are down 5.42%, having reported disappointing sales of copper. eSure shares were up 3.97% on the Bain news!

David Buik

Communications

Mobile – 07788 144 877

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MARKET ACTIVITY & EUROPEAN OPENING CALLS

FTSE CLOSE -24 at 7642 – DAX -65 at 12358, CAC down 2 at 5412 – It was the unsettling political and economic situation in Turkey that unsettled equity and bond markets, though the measurable falls seemed to dissipate during the session – Burberry BT and Admiral Group and the odd mining stock were amongst the gainers.  Banks were friendless in the ring as they were in Europe with BBVA, Deutsche, UniCredit and Soc Gen surrendering more ground.  Chemring had a shocker. The weapons maker Chemring’s shares plunged after a fatal explosion at one of its factories forced it to shut down operations ahead of a crucial sales period. Shares down 12.2%

 

DJIA-0.50%, S&P 500 -0.40%, NASDAQ-0.25% – DJIA posts a 4-day losing streak

 

The Turkish lira extended its slide, with one dollar buying 6.974 lira, compared with 6.427 lira late Friday, a decline of 6.4% for the currency after a double-digit plunge Friday. At the lira’s lows, a dollar bought 7.131 lira.

 

ASIA – ASX-+0.70%, Shanghai-0.50%, Hang Seng -0.85%, Nikkei – +1.27%

 

Bonds – Japan 0.10%, Germany 0.31%, France 0.68%, UK 1.26%, Spain 1.45%, Portugal 1.82%, US 2.88%, Italy 3.10%, Greece 4.21%

 

Cable $1.2768, €/£0.8930, €/$1.1304, $/Y110.87 – Gold $1202.50 –   Nymex $67.49, Brent $72.85 – oil falls nearly 3% on excessive US stockpiles

 

UK companies posting results today – Tuesday – Antofagasta, eSure,

 

Economic data posted this week – Tuesday – UK Labour statistics, ZEW Survey, EU 2nd quarter GDP estimate,

 

Opening calls FTSE+23 at 7665, DAX +37 at 12395 , CAC +2 at 5425 , DJIA futures +80 at 25267

 

75% of retail investors lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

MARKET ACTIVITY & EUROPEAN OPENING CALLS

 

THE MARKETS LAST WEEK

 

INDEX 6/8/18 10/8/18  % gain/loss  
FTSE 100 7659 7667 +0.10  
XETRA-DAX 12631 12424 -1.63%  
CAC40 5487 5414 -1.33%  
DJIA 25437 25313 -0.48%  
 S&P 500 2840 2833 -0.25%  
NASDAQ 7809 7839 +0.38%  
Hang Seng 27885 28366 +1.72%  
Nikkei 22536 22298 -1.06%  
Shanghai Comp 2736 2795 +2.15%  

 

Apart from China, which has had a really depressing quarter, thanks in the main to trade tariff spats and concerns about robustness of banking, falling retail activity and property values, put its best foot forward last week, with investors believing these markets to be oversold.  Also, the NASDAQ kept purring on the Apple/Amazon/et all bandwagon. Overall though, global stock markets have had a week to forget. Why?

 

Firstly, President Trump continues to grab as many controversial headlines as he can. How about these three?  Firstly, Sanctions against Iran having torn up Obama’s agreement, then Sanctions against Russia for the Salisbury poisoning and finally continued sanctions against Turkey, not forgetting keeping pressure on China over trade tariffs. No surprise then that markets were not on good terms with themselves.

 

Turkey’s Lira has lost over 30% against the greenback in the last year. Turkey is a big country with over 79.5 million people. Ergodan is not a popular world leader. This is quite a serious situation, which saw analysts and investors vent their spleens on European banks such as BBVA, UniCredit, BNP, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale. All lost between 4-6% in value last week. On caustic news of this nature the Greenback ruled OK and US Treasuries gained ground – quelle surprise! 

 

ASIA – ASX-, Shanghai -1.73%, Hang Seng -1.83%, Nikkei – -1.81% thanks in the main to grave concern over the political stability and the diminishing robustness of its economy.

 

Bonds – Japan 0.10%, Germany 0.32%, France 0.67%, UK 1.25%, Spain 1.40%, Portugal 1.76%, US 2.87%, Italy 3.00%, Greece 4.15%

 

Cable $1.2753, €/£0.8914, €/$1.1372, $/Y110.18 – Gold $1215.40-   Nymex $67.54, Brent $72.56

 

UK companies posting results this week – Monday – Clarksons, Tuesday – Antofagasta, eSure, Wednesday – Admiral Group, Balfour Beatty, Hochschild Mining, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Thursday – CLS Holdings, Kingfisher, Marshalls, Kaz Minerals

 

US companies posting results this week – Wednesday – Macy’s, Thursday – Nvidia, America’s Car-Mart, AMAT, Nordstrom, Walmart, JC Penney

 

Economic data posted this week – Tuesday – UK Labour statistics, ZEW Survey, EU 2nd quarter GDP estimate, Wednesday – UK Inflation, UK House Prices, US Retail sales, Thursday – UK retail sales, US Housing Data, Friday – UK CPI

Opening calls FTSE -36 at 7631, DAX -117 at 12307, CAC -44  at 5370, DJIA futures -133 at 25180

 

75% of retail investors lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

MARKET ACTIVITY & EUROPEAN OPENING CALLS FOR FRIDAY, 10th AUGUST 2018

Friday 10th August 2018

 

Yesterday – FTSE 100 -34 at 7741, DAX +0.34% to 12676, CAC +0.01% at 5502.  It sounds a worse result than it really was as dividend payments amounted to the equivalent of 38 points of this index. Tui Travel’s profits were down 18% for the last quarter as overseas holiday bookings were down due to the warm weather in UK shares down 2.5%. L&G shares were unchanged at 264.50p – profits were up 5% at £909m

 

Street of Dreams – The market’s indifference to life and its challenges was somewhat reflected in the demand picture, as indicated by the US Producer Price Index (PPI) stat for July, which was flat.

At the same time, the core PPI increase rose by 0.3% for the second month in a row.

 DJIA -0.29%, S&P -0.14%, NASDAQ +0.04%

 

US Yesterday – Viacom posted numbers last night – This media operation is controlled by media heiress Shari Redstone. A big boost in its fiscal third quarter, though, came from “A Quiet Place,” the horror film out of Viacom’s challenged Paramount Pictures studio, which brought in more than $300 million in global ticket sales on a production budget of just $17 million. Going forward may experts say Viacom’s future would look brighter with a complimentary partner.

 

ASIA – stocks bourses improved, though inertia has still much in evidence in China. ASX-0.09%, Shanghai -0.14%, Hang Seng -0.43%, Nikkei -0.56%

 

Bonds – Japan 0.10%, Germany 0.38%, France 0.71%, UK 1.30%, Spain 1.39%, Portugal 1.76%, Italy 2.92%, US 2.93%, Greece 4.06%

 

Cable$1.2829, €/£0.8984, €/$1.1528, $/Y110.86 – Gold $1220.00-   Nymex $66.85, Brent $72.19

 

Economic data – UK Trade Balance, UK Industrial Production & Construction output, UK 2nd Quarter GDP, UK Imports & Exports, US CPI

 

Opening calls FTSE -3 at 7738, DAX -15 at 12661, CAC -10 at 5492, DJIA futures -40 at 25469

 

75% of retail investors lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

 

 

MARKET ACTIVITY & EUROPEAN OPENING CALLS

Thursday 9th August 2018

Street of Dreams – DJIA -0.18%%, S&P -0.03%%, NASDAQ +0.06% – NASDAQ longest winning streak since March with Amazon & Facebook leading the charge – Liberty Media – Earnings for the second quarter came in at $172 million, up from $94 million in the year-ago period, even though operating income fell from $422 million to $374 million – shares were down 3.82% at $32.19 – health & food acolytes Albertsons and Rite Aid to merge

 

Asian markets traded higher, especially Shanghai and HK, though Nikkei was down 0.14% due to Yen Strength – ASX +0.70%, Shanghai 1.78%%, Hang Seng +0.91%, Nikkei

 

 

Bonds – Japan 0.12%, Germany 0.40%, France 0.74%, UK 1.32%, Spain 1.40%, Portugal 1.75%, Italy 2.92%, US 2.97%, Greece 3.96%

 

Cable $1.2880, €/£0.9015, €/$1.1615, $/Y110.81 – Gold $1223.00   Nymex $66.99, Brent $72.49

 

 

Today – – Cineworld, L&G, G4S, Coca-Cola European Partners, Evraz, Ibstock, Savills, Tritax Big Box, Card Factory, Tui Travel

 

US Today – L-Brands, Viacom, News Corpn, Eastman Kodak

 

Economic data – US PPI & Wholesale inventories,

 

Opening calls FTSE -8 at 7768, DAX -11 at 12622, CAC -2 at 5499, DJIA futures -20 at 25563

 

75% of retail investors lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

MARKET DATA & OPENING CALLS

Yesterday – FTSE 100 +54 points to the good at 7718, helped by the weakness of Sterling and the strength of the mining and resource sectors. IHG lost 3%.

Street of Dreams – DJIA +0.50%, S&P +0.28%, NASDAQ +0.31% – TESLA (10.99% at $379($162 18 months ago)) & Amazon ($898 billion) power forward & WALT DISNEY missed Disney earnings of $1.87 a shares and revenue of $15.228 billion both missed views. Studio entertainment revenue saw a 20% pop to $2.88 billion, as Marvel’s “Avengers: Infinity War” and Pixar’s “The Incredibles 2” buoyed the division. Shares down a net 1% after hours – last 2 months a 16% pop!

ASIA this AM Picked up the mood in NY apart from China’s Shanghai Com still worried about the effects of the trade spat. ASX -0.33%, Shanghai -32%, Hang Seng +0.34%, Nikkei +0.55% –

Bonds – Japan 0.10%, Germany 0.40%, France 0.72%, UK 1.30%, Spain 1.39%, Portugal 1.73%, Italy 2.92%, US 2.93%, Greece 3.93%

Cable $1.2949 – Gold $1221.40   Brent &74.64 

Today- Bellway, Glencore, Hastings, Paddy Power Betfair, Stock Spirit Group, Pagegroup, Hill & Smith, Prudential, Mylam

 

US Today – Liberty Media, Jack-in-the-Box

 

Economic data

 

 

Opening calls FTSE +7 at 7725, DAX +7 at 12655, CAC -2 at 5519, DJIA futures +5 at 25633  

 

 

 

75% of retail investors lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

LET ME RUMINATE OVER THE PAST SEVEN MONTHS IN THE MARKETS

When you are carrying excess condition – like four stone that is superfluous to requirement – environmentally the City of London is not a great place to be, especially with temperatures nudging 33 degrees and no air conditioning. Even humming Too Darn Hot“, a song written by Cole Porter for his musical Kiss Me, Kate in 1948, brings me little in the way of comfort.

 

Indulge me by letting me ruminate on financial life.  Forgetting my political persuasion, it seems to me that PM May and her cohorts are making a pig’s ear of these BREXIT negotiations. Is ‘No Deal’ or failure already priced in the value of the FTSE? Even today, it is up 43 points at 7707 at 9.22am. Overall it is up 0.26% since the beginning of the year as against the DAX -1.78% and CAC +3.7% (the Macron syndrome, though his popularity has recently collapsed 22%!). The FTSE still has 60% Dollar earning capacity and Sterling has fallen against the dollar from $1.35 to $1.2938 this year, which I suspect underpins its value. If there is ‘NO deal’, then some say Sterling will fall to $1.25, which may be no bad thing for the FTSE 100, which is an international index and not a barometer of the UK economy. Cable at $1.25 would be good for exports if we can get around blockages in Calais, Rotterdam etc, but also I think you might find a few ‘spivs and vagabonds’ buying in to the dip, with ‘Rule Britannia’ ringing in their ears!  The FTSE 250 is down 0.03% since the beginning of the year.  Considering the awful ‘press’ the government has attracted, the lack of clarity over BREXIT and the fact that the FTSE 250 is much more of a barometer of the UK economy, that is surely a result! There appears to be a degree of robustness in our economy.

 

Conversely the DJIA is up 3.2% since the beginning of the year with the S&P 500 is up 6.7% and the NASDAQ up an astonishing 11.4% thanks to electric performances from Amazon, Twitter, Alphabet, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft, despite measurable ‘pull-backs’ in April and last week. Trump mania – tax cuts and infrastructure spending – has given these markets a fillip. However, despite very strong growth in the US and almost contempt for the threat or maybe promise of higher rates due gradually in the next 2 years, 2nd quarter earnings have been no better than OK. So, some market gurus tell me that US markets may plateau out for the time being. The Shanghai Composite has had a nightmare – down 16% since the start of the year – credit, property and banking concerns have been on investors’ minds and the situation has been exacerbated by the US trade tariff spat.  The Hang Seng has fallen 6% in sympathy and the NIKKEI which has seen too much Yen strength is down 0.5%.

 

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MARKET OPENING PRICES AT 8.20am 7/8/18

At 8.20am – The FTSE 100 was up 20 points at 7683 – softer Sterling helped Dollar based earnings – companies posting numbers today – IHG -1.47%, Intertek -6.7%, Standard Life Aberdeen +1.73%, Meggitt -1.69%, TP ICAP -1.98%, Genel +1.60%, Hargreaves Lansdown -3.07%, GW Pharmaceuticals -0.38%, Pendragon -0.21%

75% of retail investors lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.