THERE’S NO HIDING PLACE. MANY DEALERS EXPERIENCING A DOSE OF THE ‘PIP!’

London equity traders seemed to be suffering from a dose of the ‘pip’ and needed a damn good reason to buy the market today and I tell you what they couldn’t find one. In fact intrepid traders did not require much encouragement to take the flags down on a few stocks that did not pass muster with their results today. The meat and potatoes of the market looked like this at 3.15pm – The Top Index was off 46 points at 7483, having been down 60. Oils, banks and consumers like Diageo and Unilever held their ground, preventing a min-rout.

 

The following felt the wheels of pain across their back. These days if a company falls short of expectation, when updating the market re progress or lack of it, there is no hiding place. Their shares receive virulent treatment.  Such was the case today – Burberry -9% (revamping business), Auto Traders (fear about competition from Facebook and Amazon), Tullow -5%, Halfords -6%, National Grid -3.5% and Inmarsat -7%, having opened up +3%. Though Sainsbury’s figures looked superficially OK, they fell from being 1.5% up to down 2% at the time of writing. All supermarkets have some big ‘short’ positions out against them. Astra Zeneca surrendered most of its early morning gains and stands just below the Plimsoll line -0.25%.

 

International markets looked nervous this morning. The Nikkei was up nearly 2% at one time, ending the session down 0.2%. Punters felt that the NIKKEI had blazed the trail too much in recent weeks and it was time to call for the Rennie’s and deal with the potential indigestion.  The DOW is down 60 points a having been down 100 early doors.

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TODAY’S FAYRE – PATEL. MOYES & MARKETS

TODAY’S FAYRE – Thursday, 9th November 2017

 

 

“Be still, my soul, be still; the arms you bear are brittle, 
Earth and high heaven are fixt of old and founded strong. 
Think rather,– call to thought, if now you grieve a little, 
The days when we had rest, O soul, for they were long. 

Men loved unkindness then, but lightless in the quarry 
I slept and saw not; tears fell down, I did not mourn; 
Sweat ran and blood sprang out and I was never sorry: 
Then it was well with me, in days ere I was born. 

Now, and I muse for why and never find the reason, 
I pace the earth, and drink the air, and feel the sun. 
Be still, be still, my soul; it is but for a season: 
Let us endure an hour and see injustice done. 

Ay, look: high heaven and earth ail from the prime foundation; 
All thoughts to rive the heart are here, and all are vain: 
Horror and scorn and hate and fear and indignation– 
Oh why did I awake? When shall I sleep again?” 

 

 

 

AE Housman – poet – 1859-1936

 

 

I suppose that PM May was left with no alternative but to relieve Priti Patel from her duties as Overseas Development Secretary.  This is sad news, as M/S Patel is bright, competent, and enthusiastic with a strong personality in what is becoming a very weak Government, which could conceivably lose further Cabinet members before the year is out!  What I found thoroughly distasteful was some of the high octane degree of hypocrisy from a certain celebrated lawyer and former government Minister; Lord Falconer to be precise.  His Lordship was, I think, Justice Secretary in the last Labour government – a government that to say the least was economical with the truth over the Iraq war.  To hear him pontificate about M/S Patel’s lack of statesmanlike and diplomatic prowess was far too rich for my blood.  I know Lord Falconer is like ‘Brighton Rock’ – chop him in half and he’s red through and through – good old New Labour – but his condemnation bordered on unacceptable duplicity.

 

It feels like the UK government could fall before Christmas. The Government seems leaderless and rudderless. Why the PM and the media allowed themselves to be sucked in to futile circus over Priti Patel resignation as Overseas Development Secretary is a mystery to me. Firstly M/S Patel was doing a job way below her pay-grade. But why make the removal of an unimportant government post world news, tracking her journey back from Uganda on the internet, amazes me. She should have resigned in Uganda and been allowed to move on.

 

 

So David Moyes is the new caretaker manager of West Ham United. He did a fine job at Everton and before that at PNE. However Man Utd was always going to be a bridge too far and so it turned out to be. He’s a football man, but I am worried at the idea that he probably needs a compass and ordnance survey map to venture south of the Trent. I just cannot see him bedding down with Sullivan, Gold and Brady, let alone building a relationship with the boys from East London and their very special humour, let alone dealing with such a coterie of nationalities amongst the players!  

 

Much will have been written overnight about M&S’S latest set of figures – unimpressive but not disastrous. Hopefully with a new and invigorated chairman, Archie Norman who, above all else is a retail man and hopefully an inspirational head of general merchandising and clothing in Jill McDonald, M&S can leave the current vortex of fashion despair and reclaim some market share, which it has consistently surrendered in the past decade. Sartorial elegance is quickly becoming an endangered species and irrelevant; so to sell clothes M&S must capture the imagination with stylish mufti and not pander so much to middle aged and older people like me who look like a badly wrapped present. Food will continue to be a struggle as its cost has gone up with the fall in the pound and the relentless quest of the discount supermarket operators. M&S’S food is top class but with the consumer having less disposable income, it is bordering on expensive. 53 overseas outlets will be closed.

 

M&S share bobbed around like a cork in a bath – starting up 1.5% going to down 2.5% and ending the session up 2% as analysts attempted to get their head around M&S future plans. JD Wetherspoon posted encouraging sales data for the last quarter – For the 13 weeks to 29 October 2017, like-for-like sales increased by 6.1% and total sales by 4.3%. A slow-down in autumn house sales sent Persimmon’s shares in to reverse – down 3.5% on the day.

 

Yesterday in New York there was little activity. Many were awaiting details that could involve trade deals with China that could total $250 billion, which might include companies such as DuPont, General Electric, Boeing, Honeywell, Qualcomm, and Bell Helicopters, not forgetting hugely ambitious infrastructure programmes in Texas and along the gulf as a result of the hurricane destruction. Dear Old Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, aged 79 is in the thick of it. This is Trump at his best – business and more business. You cannot keep two relentless deal makers down. The DOJ continues its spat with A&T over its $85 billion purchase of Time Warner. The regulator wants AT&T to sell CNN on competition grounds. The Street of Dreams closed as follows – DOW+0.03%, S&P +0.14%, NASDAQ +0.32%. Activity in Asia was far more ebullient. The ASX closed up 0.5% and the NIKKEI, having been up 1.7% closed down 0.2%. The Hang Seng was 0.8% to the good and the Shanghai Composite was up 0.4%.

 

This morning there was a slew of earnings see below. J Sainsbury attracted attention. Profits were down 9% for the last half year at £251 million. Like for like sales fell from 2.4% to +1.6% with group sales up 17% to £16 billion. The interim dividend was 3.1p per share. 112 Argos Stores opened in Sainsbury’s. Groceries on line were up 7.2% and clothes sales were 8.6% to the good. The shares have gone nowhere in the last year – 238 to 231p (down 0.5% on the day). This sector has been heavily shorted by hedge funds and it is hard to be optimistic on 2 fronts. People have less disposable income and food inflation is on the rise. Competition is fierce. Burberry has a new CEO Marco Gobbetti having replaced Chris Bailey. In the last year Burberry shares are up 30% until this morning. Revenues in the last 6 months rose by 4% with the operating profit up 24% to £127 million. However the outlook was not encouraging and investors put Burberry to the sword – Down 10% so far this morning.

 

 

UK companies posting results this week – Wednesday – Thursday – Halfords, National Grid, Coca-Cola HBC, Aldermore, J Sainsbury, Burberry, Inmarsat, Informa, SuperGroup, Beazley, Auto Trader, Astra Zeneca, Friday – Vedanta Resources

 

US companies posting interim results this week – Thursday – Liberty Media, Walt Disney, Macy’s, Nordstrom, Friday – JC Penney

 

Economic data posted this coming week – Thursday – UK manufacturing output and construction, UK Trade Balance, Friday – University of Michigan Consumer Confidence

 

 

 David Buik

Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & Co

 

  +44 (0)20 7886 2775

Mobile – 0044 7788 144 877

Panmure Gordon & Co

One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF

 

MARKET UPDATE

Take a bit here, give a bit there. Equity futures early doors told us that London’s senior Index might break new ground today in adding 20 points. Not so: down 20 points at 7545 at 3.10am. Banks and oils have been resilient and miners are slightly off their best level. However it is the dispiriting outlook for the retail that has caused London’s main Index to drift thanks to BRC sales numbers which rose in October as against 2.4% last year. Sainsbury’s, ahead of tomorrow’s numbers, is down as is M&S which reports on Thursday. I don’t think Archie Norman, the chairman was joking in saying M&S had to appeal to the young to move out of the doldrums! Next was also down a short 1%. Despite decent sales numbers for sugar and Primark, AB Foods was given a bit of a leathering, shares -4% thanks to concerns about the dividend.

Of other companies that reported today G4S failed to pass muster – down 4%. Sky, considering Walt Disney threw a boulder in the pool of concern by suggestions that it might buy part of 21st Century Fox, which might just jeopardise 21st century buying the remaining 61% of Sky, only lost 1% in the session. Culture Secretary Bradley has spent an inordinate length of time procrastinating over giving her permission for the deal to go ahead. One wonders whether Disney intervention might complicate the Competition regulator from granting its permission.

 

Blancco Technology rose like the proverbial grilse today adding 32% to 74p. The short traders had their backside kicked but let us not forget that this share has fallen from 312p since March 2017 since its profits warning. Market traders believe the management has taken hold of the bit. At 3.20pm the DOW was up 30 points.

TODAY’S FAYRE – Tuesday, 7th November 201

“You’ve heard me, scornful, harsh, and discontented, 
Mocking and loathing War: you’ve asked me why 
Of my old, silly sweetness I’ve repented– 
My ecstasies changed to an ugly cry. 

You are aware that once I sought the Grail, 
Riding in armour bright, serene and strong; 
And it was told that through my infant wail 
There rose immortal semblances of song. 

But now I’ve said good-bye to Galahad, 
And am no more the knight of dreams and show: 
For lust and senseless hatred make me glad, 
And my killed friends are with me where I go. 
Wound for red wound I burn to smite their wrongs; 
And there is absolution in my songs.”

 

Siegfried Sassoon – soldier & poet – 1886-1967

 

I am sure that the CBI’s Director General, Carolyn Fairbairn is a very astute politician and knows which side her bread is buttered on.  She speaks for big business and generalising her members are ‘REMAINERS.’ However she needs to be cognoscente of the fact the UK is leaving the EU.  Yes, the UK needs to negotiate a smooth two-year transition period after March 2019.  In the same breath, we must not sell our soul for ‘30 pieces of silver’ – in other words agree an alleged or rumoured £53 billion divorce settlement, without getting a decent trade deal in return. It would be insane to capitulate to the EU’S draconian demands at this juncture, with so much to play for. It is very sad there is so much outpouring of bad feeling from ‘Leavers’ and truculent subversive behaviour from ‘Remainers’, when we should all be looking for a sensible balance to deliver the will of the people.

 

The political turmoil that has manifested itself in Saudi Arabia in the past few days, which has resulted in Crown Prince Salman having eleven princes and 38 government ministers being held in 5-star hotels. According to local reports, Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal is one of the men arrested. He owns London’s Savoy and huge shareholding in Twitter, Apple and Time Warner. This news has come at quite a poignant time, with Saudi Arabia looking to IPO between 5-10% of Aramco globally. This could have a valuation of between $150 and $200 billion. On Sunday President Trump threw the NYSE’S hat into the ring. Politically there is plenty of clout! However for the New York authorities to change their rules in time could be a bridge too far. London appears to be very well placed. FCA’S CEO Andrew Bailey seems relatively happy for the LSE to accommodate 5% of the float, valued at circa $150 to $200 billion, due to the size of the deal. In normal circumstances at least 10% of the company has to be offered for sale to meet the correct criteria. Informed sources tell me that China could be interested in taking the whole 5%. That being the case the shares could well be issued on the Saudi stock market in Riyadh and sold straight on to the Chinese authorities. Extravagant thinking but no beyond the bounds of possibilities!

 

Yesterday’s session on the Street of Dreams was relatively quiet and was initially buoyed by energy prices rising and oils stocks responding to treatment. There was a late rattle on the NASDAQ when Broadcom expressed an interest to buy Qualcomm in a $130 billion deal. Qualcomm’s shareholders are likely to reject the deal on the basis of undervaluation for this semi-conductor titan. The last large technology acquisition was DELL buying EMC for $67 billion in 2015. Also Qualcomm have yet to complete the purchase NXP for $47 billion. Broadcom proposed paying $70 a share – a 20% premium – $60 in cash and the rest in stock. Apple would appear to have a secretive new structure that would enable it to continue avoiding billions in taxes, according to the Paradise Papers. Wall Street closed as follows – DOW +0.04%, S&P +0.13%, NASDAQ +0.33%. Asia took heart from Wall Street and selected another gear towards the close- ASX +0.89%, Shanghai +0.75%, HS +1.40%, Nikkei +1.70%.

 

 

In London yesterday the FTSE gained 2 points to 7562, though the FTSE 250 eased by 39 points from its record level. It was a few car dealer shares that fell from grace – Inchcape and Lookers – that caught investors’ attention, though Pendragon and Vertu kept their poise. Miners dipped a tad, but on the whole it was a fairly nebulous session. Former Lloyds Banking Group CEO Eric Daniels surprised the court when he confirmed that the then BOE Governor Lord Mervyn King told him that unless Lloyds bought HBOS, it would be nationalised. He was undeterred, believing money could be made from this ambitious transaction. All Gordon Brown promised to do was to help with the regulatory minefield. 6000 shareholders are seeking retribution – £500 million for the negligent purchase of HBOS. This court case has legs on it! FirstRand cheered Aldermore shareholders by bidding £1.1 billion for this excellent challenger bank.

 

The British Retail Consortium posted data that non-food sales rose by just 0.1% in the three months to October, the weakest growth since the BRC began measuring the category in January 2011. It said the figures would give retailers “cause for concern” in the run up to Christmas. Clothing sales were “particularly hard hit. Total retail sales, including food, rose just 0.2% last month, compared with 2.4% last year. On a like-for-like basis, which excludes new store openings, sales were down 1%. We should not look at these figures in isolation. They tend to be very volatile. The caveat is that these data from the BRC had been roaring away in recent months – out of kilter with CBI/ ONS measures of retail sales. Feels like a reality check rather than a collapse but clearly will weigh on GBP/ broader econ sentiment. What is interesting is the fact that the culture of the consumer is changing rapidly. Men don’t care what they look like – always cheap casual clothes and tending to be unshaven. People want to spend their surplus funds on entertainment and holidays. Also on-line-sales amount to 24% of total retail sales. As I mentioned earlier in the week, Sainsbury and M&S may not post stellar numbers on Wednesday and Thursday. Today AB Foods posted decent numbers thanks to both sugar and PRIMARK whose sales remain positive.

G4S’s numbers failed to pass muster – down 6% in early skirmishes. Imperial Brands pleased their acolytes with its recent set of numbers – shares up 2.4% at 3160p. At 9.11am the FTSE 100 was 7560

 

UK companies posting results this week – Tuesday – G4s, AB Foods, Imperial Brands, Direct Line, Hiscox, Wednesday – eSure, JD Wetherspoon, M&S, Sophos, Wizz Air, SSE, Tullow, OneSavings, Persimmon, Thursday – Halfords, National Grid, Coca-Cola HBC, Aldermore, J Sainsbury, Burberry, Inmarsat, Informa, SuperGroup, Beazley, Auto Trader, Astra Zeneca, Friday – Vedanta Resources

 

US companies posting interim results this week – Tuesday – Dean Foods, Wednesday – Wendy’s, Eastman Kodak, Thursday – Liberty Media, Walt Disney, Macy’s, Nordstrom, Friday – JC Penney

 

Economic data posted this coming week – Thursday – UK manufacturing output and construction, UK Trade Balance, Friday – University of Michigan Consumer Confidence

 

 

 David Buik

Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & Co

 

  +44 (0)20 7886 2775

Mobile – 0044 7788 144 877

Panmure Gordon & Co

One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF 

 

TODAY’S FAYRE – Sunday, 5th November 2017

 

 

If I should die, think only this of me:
That there’s some corner of a foreign field
That is for ever England. There shall be
In that rich earth a richer dust concealed;
A dust whom England bore, shaped, made aware,
Gave, once, her flowers to love, her ways to roam,
A body of England’s, breathing English air,
Washed by the rivers, blest by suns of home.

And think, this heart, all evil shed away,
A pulse in the eternal mind, no less
Gives somewhere back the thoughts by England given;
Her sights and sounds; dreams happy as her day;
And laughter, learnt of friends; and gentleness,
In hearts at peace, under an English heaven.” 

 

Rupert Brooke – soldier & poet – 1887-1915

 

I was very sad to hear of the death of Mary Reveley last Monday aged 77. In terms of winners on the flat and over obstacles, she was the outstanding lady trainer of her age, sending out over 2000 winners from the dairy farm she shared with her husband, George at Saltburn on Teesside.

She died of a heart attack doing what she loved doing best – tending to the horses in the yard. She was painfully shy and a person of few words. However whatever she had to say was always worth listening to. Though she never trained the prestigious winners that Jenny Pitman did, she knew how to place her inexpensive horses to best advantage. The only rich owner she had was Peter Savill, for whom Mary trained many a winner, more often than not with Kevin Darley in the plate.

Mrs Reveley’s star performer on the flat was ‘Melottie.’ He won ‘The Cambridgeshire’ in 1991, backed in from 25/1 to 10/1 at the off. John Lowe gave him a peach of a ride to land the spoils with a late rattle. She was better known as a jumps trainer. Her stable stars included ‘Cab on Target’ ‘Seven Towers’ and ‘Dalkey Sound.’ Some great mares went through the Saltburn handler’s yard including ‘Marello.’ Mary and her very talented jockey Peter Niven dominated the Northern racing scene for many years. She was a devotee of Arthur Stephenson, the Bishop Auckland handler. His advice was always sacrosanct. Few of her jumpers ever wore boots as she called them, as Arthur felt they were responsible for many leg injuries.

My wife and I and a few friends had shares in three horses with her – ‘Terrible Gel’ a lunatic 2 mile chaser, who went ‘lickety-split’ from pillar to post winning a few and occasionally taking a really crashing fall. Our staying chaser ‘Brave Buccaneer’ was probably the best. He needed bottomless ground. On his day on the gaff tracks he was very special. He was also a decent hurdler winning twice at Newbury. Though not really known as a gambling yard, we somehow seemed to know when a horse was laid out for the occasion. Mary, her son Keith and Peter Niven were quite a team. She will be sorely missed.

 

Perhaps I am brain-dead or just naive!  Nonetheless it strikes me that Andrea Leadsom and Gavin Williamson have knowingly attempted to put Mrs May government to the sword for their own personal gain, with a view to remaining at the high table of Government.  Words fail me, if we are to believe what the media have told us.

 

UK equity markets reached new records on Thursday, despite the rather luke-warm reception given to the MPC’s well documented and flagged-up increase in base rate to 0.5%, where it stood prior to the June 2016 referendum.  This is first rate increase in the UK for a decade. The Governor and his committee are of the opinion that inflation running at 3% and an aggressive increase in unsecured loan borrowing may necessitate two further rate hikes in the next year.  I have my doubts, but what do I know?  With Governor Carney so negative about BREXIT and the damage he and his team believe it will have on the health of the UK economy, it seems inconceivable that with less disposable income, people will be expected to sustain the higher cost of mortgages, whilst maintaining their assault on the ‘high street’ or on line for retail, which is fundamental to the growth of the economy! Anyway the reaction to the hike was for the foreign exchange ‘spivs and vagabonds’ to take the profits, having chased Cable up from $1.30 to £1.3250 in recent weeks.  Sterling fell by 1.3% on the week. The obvious beneficiary of Sterling being sold off was the FTSE 100, which rose sharply on Thursday and Friday to record levels, courtesy of Dollar related earning stocks (60% of FTSE 100 constituent members).  However what was every bit as interesting was the fact that the FTSE 250 also hit record levels. This is also particularly pleasing as it happened despite BREXIT.  Whether ‘remainers’ like it or not, there is good buoyant business out there to be capitalised upon.

 

 

In the US President Trump also had central bank issues to deal with.  He nominated Jerome Powell to succeed Janet Yellen as Chairman of the FED. He beat Messrs Taylor, Coen and Warsh to the nomination.  Jay Powell is similarly conservative in the Yellen mould but is likely to be more accommodating to Trump’s wish to lighten up on banking regulation. Mr Powell ticks many boxes from a Princeton education to being a lawyer in New York a banker at Dillon Reid before joining the Treasury at the behest of George H Bush. Wall Street again flirted with all-time high.  Earnings were good and in the case of tech they were, in places, spectacular – efforts by Facebook, Apple and Alibaba were spectacular. There was also enthusiasm for the President’s proposed tax cuts. Non-farm payrolls came in slightly short of expectations with 261k jobs being created in October coupled with an upward revision of 90k for the previous two months.  Unemployment fell to 4.1%, which nailed the positive sentiment that prevailed on the Street of Dreams. Last week most global bourses prospered – S&P 500 +0.13%, FTSE 100 +0.74%, European bourses +0.74% and the Nikkei +2.41% ( a 21 year high but way short of 1989 38k!). Brent crude added 1% to $61 and change and gold eased by $6 an ounce to $1269.

 

 

Here in old Blighty we had great numbers from HSBC, BP and Shell and poor efforts from Next and Standard Chartered Bank. Apple on Thursday blew the market away with an outstanding effort. 4th quarter revenues were up 12% to $52.6 billion with a profit of $10.7 billion. 46.7 million IPhones were sold with a 25% increase in the sale of Macs earning $7.7 billion and iPad sales +12% gleaning $4.8 billion.  With the iPhoneX to follow some believe that the next quarter revenue could reach $67 billion (not sure). Apple shares rallied 3.3% and the company is now valued just short of $900 billion. Alibaba saw a 60% increase in 2nd quarter earnings to $8.3 billion. Jack Ma has done an amazing job attempting to replicate Amazon in China.

 

This coming week we have updates from M&S and Sainsbury.  Neither set of numbers are likely to make very encouraging reading. Sainsbury has given 135k staff a 4.6% salary increase. £1 billion of cost cuts post the £1.4 billion Argos purchase is expected and like for like same store sales may have dropped from +2.3% to +1.4%. Archie Norman and Steve Rowe will hopefully make a formidable and rejuvenated team at M&S, but Thursday’s numbers will be better than the 1st quarter, though clothes sales may have fallen 1.4% – better than 5.9% dive last time!  Jill McDonald (ex Halfords) will now be in charge of clothes.  M&S is rejigging its stores closing 30 and converting maybe 45 in to Simply Food outlets.  M&S has 959 shops. Some loss making stores (53) may be closed. ITV has gone to war with Virgin media over an alleged unsettled £80 million account.  It is hoped that Chancellor Hammond will give a business rate relief of 3.9% next April.

 

In closing it was disturbing to read that two decent sized IPOS were pulled on Friday, due to adverse market conditions?  Really?  I am not buying that.  Markets are at record levels. Investors are proving to be much more sophisticated these days and to put their toe in the water they expect good value and near enough a guaranteed profit. Mobile mast maker Arqiva and food producer Bakkavor blamed market “volatility” for the decision to ditch floats that would have valued the businesses at £6 billion and £1.5 billion respectively. I wonder if they were too richly priced and perhaps were not that heavily over-subscribed.

 

UK companies posting results this week – Monday – Mylan, Tuesday – G4s, AB Foods, Imperial Brands, Direct Line, Hiscox, Wednesday – eSure, JD Wetherspoon, M&S, Sophos, Wizz Air, SSE, Tullow, OneSavings, Persimmon, Thursday – Halfords, National Grid, Coca-Cola HBC, Aldermore, J Sainsbury, Burberry, Inmarsat, Informa, SuperGroup, Beazley, Auto Trader, Astra Zeneca, Friday – Vedanta Resources

 

US companies posting interim results this week – Tuesday – Dean Foods, Wednesday – Wendy’s, Eastman Kodak, Thursday – Liberty Media, Walt Disney, Macy’s, Nordstrom, Friday – JC Penney

 

Economic data posted this coming week – Monday – BRC Retail sales, Thursday – UK manufacturing output and construction, UK Trade Balance, Friday – University of Michigan Consumer Confidence

 

 

 David Buik

Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & Co

 

  +44 (0)20 7886 2775

Mobile – 0044 7788 144 877

Panmure Gordon & Co

One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF

MARKET UPDATE

Though there was a slew of earnings reported this morning, the most obvious hike in Base Rate of 25 basis points to 0.5%, since the ‘Old King Died’ was very much top of the agenda. There was wall to wall media coverage on all new channels with every Tom, Dick and Harry purporting to be an economist chucking their respective two cents worth in to the pot. Many would disagree that there were more hikes to come in the current climate with Governor Carney so negative on BREXIT and the damage to be inflicted on the economy, but that is what we were lead to believe. It was especially hard to digest with wage inflation so low and real inflation likely to be nearer 2% this time next year than 3%. Immediately after the 7-2 vote in favour of a hike was posted, Sterling fell sharply against the Greenback from $1.3250 to $1.31.33. The Doyens put it down to the announcement being a disaster – RUBBISH! It was just forex punters, spivs and vagabonds taking their profits. Conversely the FTSE 100 rose like a grilse to close up 67 points to 7555, based on Dollar related earning stocks. The FTSE 250 also closed at all-time record level.

 

So oils, with Shell (+1%) to the fore, tobacco, banks, miners and tobaccos led the charge. Others that reported included BT Group -2.25%, Wm Morrison -0.88%, RSA -1% and Centamin -2.4%. The two big movers were at the opposite end of the spectrum – Randgold -7% and Howden Joinery +9.7%. The DOW and 6.40am was up 26 points.

TODAY’S FAYRE – REALITY OVER BREXIT, FED, MPC & MARKETS

TODAY’S FAYRE – Thursday, 2nd November 2017

 

 

“What passing-bells for these who die as cattle?

— Only the monstrous anger of the guns.

Only the stuttering rifles’ rapid rattle

Can patter out their hasty orisons.

No mockeries now for them; no prayers nor bells;

Nor any voice of mourning save the choirs,—

The shrill, demented choirs of wailing shells;

And bugles calling for them from sad shires.

 

What candles may be held to speed them all?

Not in the hands of boys, but in their eyes

Shall shine the holy glimmers of goodbyes.

The pallor of girls’ brows shall be their pall;

Their flowers the tenderness of patient minds,

And each slow dusk a drawing-down of blinds.”

 

Wilfred Owen – soldier & poet – 1893-1918

 

The other day I enjoyed one of those lunches, when the world is satisfactorily put to right.  It was with a good journalist friend of mine, who is about half my age and probably twice as wise.  Unsurprisingly the subject of BREXIT drifted towards the top of the agenda and he had very wise words to impart to me. He could not understand why people like me who have nailed their flag to the mast as a ‘leaver’ were getting quite so het up by the lack of not only action in terms of the negotiations, let alone achievement.

 

Considering June’s General Election was nothing short of a total debacle, the influence of a so called strong government disappeared in a heart-beat. He went on to say that the shortage of professional negotiators was absolutely chronic, with politicians and civil servants showing little aptitude or appetite for the fight against some tough canny and uncompromising old birds, who are under orders not to concede one centimetre from the rules laid down by the EU Heads of State. He made a few very profound logical comments and I hope he is right. Firstly he thinks ‘No Deal’ is unthinkable. Business, industry and commerce will never allow that impasse to happen. 

 

Secondly a second referendum is a ‘no-go-area.’ It would be too divisive and it would damage the UK irrevocably. Referendums are very poor tools for settling any policy unless there is a 70% majority. The time for that consideration has long-passed. The UK’s negotiation with the EU on money, trade and many other issues will go right down to the wire.  Neither side will want to be held to account that it has negotiated a deal that could have been improved on. So he thinks, and on reflection, I agree, this will be brinkmanship personified.  Eventually a deal will be cobbled at the very last moment that both parties will be forced to live with. Let’s hope good sense will prevail.

 

So this afternoon, it seems likely that Jerome Powell will be appointed chairman of the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK, replacing Janet Yellen, who may have proved too conservative for President Trump, particularly over relaxing regulation for banks. Mr Powell ticks all the boxes with experience in the law, investment banking and private equity as central banking to get the nod ahead of Taylor, Coen and Warsh. He may accommodate Trump on banking but he may be just as cautious on interest rate policy. The FED voted for no change yesterday about a 25 basis point hike next month looks nailed on!

 

Wall Street stocks finished mostly higher yesterday after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady and gave upbeat comments about the economy. The Dow added 58 points, or 0.25%, to 23,435, the S&P 500 gained four points, or 0.16%, to 2,579 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 11 points, or 0.17%, to 6,717.

The FED signaled solid US economic growth and a strengthening labour market while downplaying the impact of recent hurricanes, a sign it is on track to lift borrowing costs again next month. The move came as an ADP report estimated private-sector hiring surged by 235,000 jobs in October, while the Institute for Supply Management reported manufacturing industry growth tempered a bit in October but was still strong.

Developments at the Fed come as corporate earnings are coming in generally above expectations for the third quarter. Energy was the best-performing S&P 500 sector, gaining 1.1% while utilities lagged the most. Tech, which has led the market’s rise this year, closed up 0.1% for its fifth straight session of gains.

After the closing bell, Facebook shares fell 1.87% in volatile trading after the social media company’s quarterly report, which posted knock-out numbers accompanied by a warning. Third quarter revenues were up 47% at $10.33 billion with a profit of $4.7 billion. Subscribers were up to 2.07 billion (+16%)! However CEO Mark Zuckerberg warned as to future profits and expressed concern that Russian influence on the Presidential election had attracted unsolicited interest from 126 million Facebook users. Facebook shares are up 43% in the last year and this company is valued at a gargantuan $522 billion.

Tesla Motors fell over 5% after hours as it incurred its largest loss and also admitted the company was 3 months behind in hitting a car production level of 5000 units per week. Tesla shares have rallied by 64% in the last year and the company is valued at $55.3 billion.

 

Yesterday the FTSE 100 posted another nebulous result – down 5 points. However there were plenty of individual stocks that attracted some serious attention, particularly NEXT and Standard Chartered Bank. NEXT shares fell by 8%. Retail sales for the last quarter and the year were down 7.7% with the Directory posting a boost in sales for the last quarter of +13.2% and +9.4% for the year. However Lord Wolfson was very reticent about the future – Hence the visceral treatment of the shares. The shares are down by 40% since September 2015. Standard Chartered Bank’s efforts also did not pass muster, despite strong leadership from Bill Winter and a 4% increase in come to $3.6 billion. Its shares were clattered – down 6%. In the last year this bank’s shares have risen by 13%.

 

This morning there was a slew of earnings. Wm Morrison posted a 2.5% excluding fuel increase in like for like sales against 2.6% last quarter. Shares were down 1% unchanged in the last year. BT Group posted revenues down 1% to £5.949 billion with a profit of £1.8 billion (-4%). BT has a new chairman Jan Du Plessis. EE seems to have bedded down well. BT is committed with the help of the government to providing universal broadband to 12 million users by 2020. The proposed dividend of 4.85p per share will be maintained, but next year an interim policy per share will be fixed at 30% of the prior full year. The chairman will be sorting out the right balance on telecom business with commitment to BT Sport as well as securing a strong management team, preventing the issue that occurred in Italy, from being repeated. Shares were down 1.4% at 9.25am and the best part of 40% in the last year. Royal Dutch Shell posted a profit of $4.1 billion for the last quarter and $9.2 billion for 2017 – up 202%, on the back of an increase in oil prices and some contributions from the acquisition of BG Group. Shares unchanged on the day at 2416p.

 

It is inflation Report and MPC day. Most observers will be amazed if bank rate does not go up 0.25% to pre-referendum rate of 0.5% on 23rd June 2016, where it stood for 7 years. Cunliffe, Haldane, McCafferty and Carney are set to support an increase, which most people think will be a ‘one done and off!’ With Governor Carney so negative about BREXIT, it seems unlikely there is any scope for further increases. So inflation is 3% but with the Pound likely to retain its current value most believe that inflation will be nearer 2% than 3% this time next year! Unsecured lending will have dictated this symbolic increase!

 

At 9.50am the FTSE 100 is up 7 points at 7495.

 

UK companies posting results this week – Thursday – BT Group, Intu, Royal Dutch Shell, RSA, Tate & Lyle, Centamin, Howden Joinery, Wm Morrison, Randgold, Friday – Smith & Nephew, Informa

 

US companies posting interim results this week – Thursday – Apple, Alibaba, Costco, Yum! Brands, Hyatt Hotels, Starbuck’s, Friday – Sotheby’s, Revlon

 

Economic data posted this coming week – Thursday – BOE Inflation Report & MPC, Friday – UK PMI Services, US Non-Farm Payrolls and employment data.

 

 

 David Buik

Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & Co

 

  +44 (0)20 7886 2775

Mobile – 0044 7788 144 877

Panmure Gordon & Co

 

One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF

 

 ​

market update

As I write it is five minutes past the third hour. London’s main index, having started nervously in the wake of a poor performance in New York yesterday, followed by a neurotic effort in Asia, has held its own and is all square at 7490. It started down about 17 points rallied to +17 points , courtesy of a stellar gain by BP on good results (+3.8% but has drifted to being only up 1.5% as I write) and is now all square. WPP was down 2% on indifferent numbers, but the market quickly realised that the figures were considerably less awful than many expected and they have bounced sharply to stand +3%.

 

Ryanair, despite all its travails over pilots and fines is expected to meet its annual profit forecast and the punters believed the silvery-tongued Michael O’Leary, resulting in a 7% bounce in the shares. The government has posted its plans to curtail huge betting losses on slot machines. William Hill, Ladbrokes Coral and Paddy Power Betfair all rallied by 1.5%, 2.3% and 0.13%. Why? It is perceived that the government plans may be less draconian than many originally thought. The minimum bet is likely to be nearer £20 than £2 – so that move suggests any cut was more than priced it. Royal Mail Group was 5% easier on a bearish note from Berenberg. Other companies posting numbers today faired as follows – DS Smith +1%, Nostrum Oil & Gas -1.5% and Plus500 +2%.

 

On the Street of Dreams the DOW was up 20 points at the time of writing. Pfizer beat expectations but the shares had travelled and arrived – -1.5%.

TODAY’S FAYRE – Tuesday, 31st October 2017

 

“When melancholy Autumn comes to Wembley

And electric trains are lighted after tea

The poplars near the Stadium are trembly

With their tap and tap whispering to me,

Like the sound of little breakers

Spreading out along the surf-line

When the estuary’s filling

With the sea.

 

Then Harrow- on the– Hill’s a rocky island

And Harrow churchyard full of sailors’ graves

And the constant click and kissing of the trolley

Buses hissing

Is the level to the Wealdstone turned to waves

And the rumble of the railway

Is the thunder of the rollers

As they gather up for plunging

Into caves.

 

There’s a storm cloud to the westward over

Kenton,

There’s a line of harbour lights at Perivale,

Is it rounding rough Pentire in a flood of sunset

fire

The little fleet of trawlers under sail?

Can those boats be only roof tops

As they stream along the skyline

In a race for port and Padstow

With the gale?”

 

 

 

Sir John Betjeman – poet laureate – 1906-1984

 

 

 

 Sir Winston Churchill once said: “We have our own dream and our own task. We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked but not combined. We are interested and associated but not absorbed. If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea she must always choose the open sea.”

 

 

I have to say, that in concert with thousands of others, how proud we should be of the England Under-17 team in winning their World Cup in Kolkota vanquishing Spain 5-2, having been down 0-2 after thirty minutes.  Let’s hope they can go on and establish themselves in the Premiership and thus make up the backbone of a great England team in 5 years’ time.  I suspect that I am dreaming, as ‘filthy-lucre’ will always attract many of the better players from around the world to come and play here in our ‘Sceptred Isle!’

 

 

You have to admire the flagrant contempt with which Messrs Clarke, Clegg and Adonis hold the British electorate.  Democracy be damned as far as they are concerned.  However I personally have far more issue with M Barnier.  He should have had the good grace, the good manners and the knowledge of etiquette to know it was entirely inappropriate for him to receive these three political titans, when negotiations have reached such a high degree of sensitivity.

 

So Netflix will no longer be screening Kevin Spacey’s ‘House of Cards!’ well there’s a surprise!

 

So the Bank of England posted a sensible though hysterical assessment of the damage a ‘no deal’ or ‘hard Brexit ‘would have on the financial sector. It would have been in dereliction of its duty not to have sent out a timely warning. Worst case scenario it could cost according to the BOE, 75k jobs, with 10k likely to be lost even in happier circumstances. The BOE is right for the metaphorical campanologists to ring ‘for whom the bell tolls!’ However I don’t believe a word of it. 75k jobs just cannot be transferred to Frankfurt (Micky Mouse town of 750k), Paris and Brussels. They don’t have the infrastructure and you know what? People do NOT want to work there! Good sense will prevail! It has to!

 

 

If Lloyd Blankfein want to keep goading the government about how attractive Frankfurt is and that Goldman’s European head office in London may be half-empty – so be it! Goldman has made millions of Dollars out of the UK Government over many years. To think they will replace that with German and French government business may be folly. France likes French banks and Germany likes Deutsche Bank!

 

 

 

 

Yesterday HSBC posted vastly improved results with last quarter’s profits coming in at $4.6 billion up by $3.8 billion this time last year on revenue of $13 billion (+3%) and for the last 9 months a profit before tax of $19.4 billion (up by $4.3 billion last year).  HSBC’S share price had risen by 19% in the last year and by a similar amount in the last 6 months to 737.47 (-1.45% on the day), so the market’s reception to these numbers was not really surprising – travelled and arrived. Tier One Capital improved to 14.6% from 13.0%. Asia and China are now responsible for 70% of the business with the US hardly a major feature. The bank spent £100 million ring fencing its UK operation with a new head office in Birmingham. Mark Tucker is now ensconced as chairman.  John Flint will take over from Stuart Gulliver next February as CEO. HSBC returned 8.2% on capital against 4.4% last year. Asset management grew by 17% and the dividend was maintained. There is now a very strong case for the ‘local’ bank to move its head office back to HK from London.

 

Yesterday the FTSE 100 lost 17 points to 7487 in a lack lustre session.  Apart from HSBC, EasyJet grabbed a few of the remaining headlines as CEO Carolyn McCall in an almost certainly valedictory move, before she heads off to ITV, bought a chunk of Air Berlin’s 25 leased aircraft (A320) for E40 million. EasyJet is also looking to take on 1000 air crew, which will give this budget airline a strong presence in Germany. The move will also rattle Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary’s cage. EasyJet’s share price has made a great recovery since March 2017 when it languished at 917p. It closed up 2.6% yesterday at 1306.6p. Today Ryanair posted its results for the last quarter. ASDA has not pleased its owner Walmart here in the UK.  Like the other supermarkets ASDA which was bought by the US juggernaut Walmart in 1999 has had a gruelling 3 years and saw its first quarterly sales rise in August 2017. CEO Sean Clarke, a lifer from Walmart is stepping down and will be replaced for the time being by Roger Burnley, a former B&Q, Sainsbury and Matalan director, who also worked under Archie Norman and Alan Leighton at ASDA in years gone by.

 

Ryanair posted numbers this morning – its profit after tax was 1.293 billion euros in the six months to the end of September, in line with an average forecast of 1.298 billion euros in a company poll of analysts. Ryanair reiterated its forecast that it would make a profit after tax of between 1.4 billion and 1.45 billion euros in its financial year, which ends on March 31, 2018. Ryanair has seen over 2 billion euros knocked off its share price since it announced the first wave of cancellations on Sept. 15, an emergency measure to free up standby pilots to ensure the smooth operation of its fleet of 400 planes. This aggressive budget airline said it had cut fares by 5% in the six months to months to Sept. 31, the first half of its financial year. Fares for the six months to March 31 will fall by between 4 and 6% rather than the 5 to 7% previously guided.

 

Wall Street pulled back from record-high territory on Monday as markets digested recent gains at the start of a week heavy on economic news. Merck shares declined weighing down the Dow jones and S&P 500. The Dow eased by 85 points, or 0.36%, to 23,349, the S&P 500 lost 8 points, or 0.32%, to 2,573 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped two points, or 0.03%, to 6,699.


Stocks pared losses late in the day amid signs that US President Donald Trump was close to picking Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell as head of the US central bank. Market watchers pointed to declines steepening after a Bloomberg report that the House of Representatives was discussing a gradual cut in corporate tax rates over several years.


Investors were also digesting the impact to Trump’s agenda from news that his former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, was charged with money laundering in the federal probe into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election. In corporate news, Apple shares gained 2.3% after analysts pointed to strong demand for the iPhone X. The board of Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp is having doubts about the merger it has been negotiating between its US wireless subsidiary Sprint Corp and T-Mobile US Inc, due to fears of losing control of a combined entity. Sprint shares fell 9.3% and T-Mobile ended off 5.4%.

 

This morning BP posted a much improved effort for the 3rd quarter – a replacement profit of $1.865 billion against $933 million last time. This was on revenues of $60.8 billion and an EPS of 6.98p. Now that the Gulf incident which cost over $40 billion is behind BP, let’s hope its ‘onwards and upwards!’ BP’s share price has been disappointing this year – up 7.5% including today’s rally. However the share price is up 50% from September 2015. WPP posted a disappointing though not unexpected trading statement. Like for like sales were down 1.1% and came in at 3.6 billion. CEO Sir Martin Sorrell gave the impression that apart from tech and healthcare the going is tough as business profits are wafer thin. WPP shares have fallen 16% this year and by 0.9% today.

 

 

UK companies posting results this week – Tuesday – BP, DS Smith, Croda, Getech, Ryanair, Earthport, WPP, Plus500, Nostrum Oil & Gas, Wednesday – Standard Chartered Bank, NEXT, Paddy Power Betfair, Just Group, Thursday – BT Group, Intu, Royal Dutch Shell, RSA, Tate & Lyle, Centamin, Howden Joinery, Wm Morrison, Amec, Foster, Wheeler, Randgold, Friday – Smith & Nephew, Informa

 

US companies posting interim results this week – Tuesday – Pfizer, Kellogg’s, US Steel Corpn, Wednesday – Pitney-Bowes, Bunge, Allergan, Facebook, Marathon Oil, Kraft Heinz, Metlife, Denny’s, Tesla, Thursday – Apple, Alibaba, Costco, Yum! Brands, Hyatt Hotels, Starbuck’s, Friday – Sotheby’s, Revlon

 

Economic data posted this coming week – UK mortgage approvals and net lending, US Personal Spending, Tuesday – Gfk Consumer Confidence, Wednesday – UK BRC index, UK PMI Manufacturing, Thursday – BOE Inflation Report & MPC, Friday – UK PMI Services, US Non-Farm Payrolls and employment data.

 

 

 David Buik

Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & Co

 

  +44 (0)20 7886 2775

Mobile – 0044 7788 144 877

Panmure Gordon & Co

One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF

TODAY’S FAYRE

 

TODAY’S FAYRE – Sunday, 29th October 2017

 

 

“Thee too the years shall cover; thou shalt be 
As the rose born of one same blood with thee,
As a song sung, as a word said, and fall
Flower-wise, and be not any more at all,
Nor any memory of thee anywhere;
For never Muse has bound above thine hair
The high Pierian flower whose graft outgrows
All summer kinship of the mortal rose

Yea, thou shalt be forgotten like spilt wine,
Except these kisses of my lips on thine
Brand them with immortality; but me —
Men shall not see bright fire nor hear the sea,
Nor mix their hearts with music, nor behold
Cast forth of heaven, with feet of awful gold
And plumeless wings that make the right air blind,
Lightning, with thunder for a hound behind
Hunting through fields unfurrowed and unsown
But in the light and laughter, in the moan
And music, and in grasp of lip and hand
And shudder of water that makes felt on land
The immeasurable tremor of all the sea,
Memories shall mix and metaphors of me.”

 

Algernon Swinburne – poet – 1844-1909

 

I am in the process of reading an excellent book on ‘BREXIT’ and how it all came about – ‘ALL OUT WAR’ by the Sunday Times political editor Tim Shipman. Oh yes! I know what you all are saying, baying at me how you are sick to death of ‘BREXIT and how it has taken over our lives. However this book throws some real light on many of the dramatics personae in a balanced manner. It is brilliantly written.

 

Though I have yet to finish this ‘Magnus Opus’, what has come to light, which I would like to share with those of you who haven’t read this account, concern the main government players in the UK and the EU. Some of David Cameron’s and George Osborne’s advisors on the negotiations with the EU, thought they did not set their sights nearly high enough, when going in to bat in February 2016, when the ‘little’ they asked for became even more watered down, resulting in the poor PM coming back to London with virtually nothing.

 

Reading between the lines, Tusk, Juncker, Verhofstadt and unsurprisingly Merkel and Hollande had no intention of making the remotest sign of concessions on reform. In fact Hollande was hostile and the mood for federalism within the EU was growing like mushrooms. To all intents and purposes David Cameron should never have called for a referendum in June 2016. The PM and his followers’ case to remain was wafer thin and probably would not stand up to close and aggressive scrutiny. In fairness to George Osborne, he was never in favour of a referendum. It was his opinion that it was the government’s to lose. According to Nigel Farage the MEPS who used to gather for a glass or two after EU parliamentary sessions were absolutely bemused at how little the UK government demanded for reform! The rest is history. This book is a detailed, well-informed and outstanding account.

 

 

It’s been one ‘hell of a week’ again. Not only have markets had to digest the illegal decision by Catalonia to declare independence and the potentially dangerous ramifications, including the distinct possibility of damaging Spain by holing it below the waterline. This news also sent deeply unwelcome messages to the EU, who already have issues with the UK and possibly Italy, Poland, Hungary and Greece next year. There is also no doubt that the venomous Nicola Sturgeon will have been even more greatly heartened in her quest to gain independence for Scotland. Also President Trump has shown little appetite to get back on the bridle. This week he has focused on mainly on Syria, refusing, through Rex Tillerson, to support any kind of an Assad leadership. He will also make decision on the chairmanship of the FED and possibly more sanctions against Russia. The decision on the appointment of the FED chairman will be made next week.  Most punters do not expect Janet Yellen to be reappointed.  Informed sources expect either Powell, Taylor, Warsh or Cohn to land the spoils.

 

In Europe we had the ECB’S decision to postpone the tapering of quantitative easing until next September to consider as well as further bellicose and discouraging comments on the EU/UK negotiations – nothing particularly spiteful, but nothing particularly encouraging.

 

Here in the UK, though GDP for the 3rd quarter came in better than expected at +0.4% rather than 0.3% (annualised 1.5%), retail activity came in lower in September than for any month for eight years. The same applied to car sales – also in the doldrums! ‘Remainers’ could hardly contain their joy! BREXIT! Look I told you so! It is interesting to relate that on-line retail activity was as buoyant as ever. Despite this barrage of complex and potentially unsettling news, markets on a global basis remained quite calm and though there was a bit of a ‘sell-off’ on Wednesday, the net result on the week was extremely neutral – S&P +0.16%, FTSE 100 -0.24%, European bourses +0.80% and the NIKKEI +2.27% due to Abe-San’s euphoric election victory and a week Yen.  Though some way below 1989’s 38k level, the Nikkei hit its highest level for 21 years. Since the beginning of the year, the DOW is +18%, the S&P +14%, the Nasdaq +24.5%, the Hang Seng +28%, the Nikkei +28% and FTSE 100 +6%

 

Much of that recovery at the end of the week emanated in the US and was due to stellar results from Alphabet (+4.26%), Microsoft (+6.4%) and Amazon (+13.2%), whose shares blazed the trail. These astonishing share price movements have added gargantuan wealth to Jeff Bezos ($68 billion) and Bill Gates ($67 billion).  Both Amazon’s and Alphabet’s share prices have risen by close to 27% since the beginning of the year.  On the whole the earnings season has pleased investors with the likes of Caterpillar and 3Ms far exceeding expectations earlier in the week. Next week the market will eagerly await Apple’s numbers to be posted on Thursday. Slight concern has been expressed at the availability of the new iPhoneX.

 

Last week investors in London were preoccupied by bank results.  It took a bit of time for Lloyds’s results to be fairly digested but by the end of the week the shares were 3% to the good.  There were no further provisions for PPI, but investors may find this bank lacking in inspiration until we see some clarification over BREXIT. Though I am not an analyst, Lloyds should be well placed going forward.  As for Barclays, CEO Jes Staley’s presentation was not that convincing, as investment banking revenues, particularly trading, fell by 34% in comparison to this time last year. It should not be forgotten that Barclays have shed 60k staff globally and cuts its balance sheet by £300 million. Shares fell by 7% on Thursday. Jes Staley also has his own future to clarify re whistle-blowing problem.

Deutsche Bank saw trading revenues down by 24% with equity trading 16% light. UBS posted improved profits up 40% after massive restructuring.  It may also be that 1000 staff may not after all be leaving London.

 

It was RBS’s turn to step up on Friday.  Profits of £871m, Net £397m were posted. Tier One Capital stood at 15.5%, which was very encouraging.  No extra provisions for PPI were accounted for though there was a surprising £244 million restructuring costs.  There was no news on the DOJ fine estimated at between $5billion and $10 billion.  Until clarification, it will be difficult to sell the business back to the public, despite NatWest and others doing very well in isolation. Next week we hear from HSBC, knowing that John Flint will be replacing Stuart Gulliver as CEO next February.  Both BP and Royal Dutch Shell post numbers next Tuesday and Thursday respectively. With oil prices flying high profits are expected to double – BP to $1.5 billion for the 3rd quarter and Shell to $3.6 billion.

 

On Thursday the market expects the MPC to confirm a 25 basis point increase in bank rate to 0.5% – back to pre-referendum levels, where it stood for 8 years. This will be down to 3% inflation.  Regardless of what Mark Carney says it is difficult to see anything more than a symbolic increase with so many economic imponderables such as the value of the Pound and the so-called creaking UK economy under the strain of BREXIT.

 

 

UK companies posting results this week – HSBC, Millennium Copthorne, Glencore, Tuesday – BP, DS Smith, Croda, Getech, Ryanair, Earthport, WPP, Plus500, Nostrum Oil & Gas, Wednesday – Standard Chartered Bank, NEXT, Paddy Power Betfair,  Thursday – BT Group, Intu, Royal Dutch Shell, RSA, Tate & Lyle, Centamin, Howden Joinery, Wm Morrison, Amec, Foster, Wheeler, Randgold, Friday – Smith & Nephew, Informa

 

US companies posting interim results this week – Tuesday – Pfizer, Kellogg’s, US Steel Corpn, Wednesday – Pitney-Bowes, Bunge, Allergan, Facebook, Marathon Oil, Kraft Heinz, Metlife, Denny’s, Thursday – Apple, Costco, Yum! Brands, Hyatt Hotels, Starbuck’s, Friday – Sotheby’s, Revlon

 

Economic data posted this coming week – UK mortgage approvals and net lending, US Personal Spending, Tuesday – Gfk Consumer Confidence, Wednesday – UK BRC index, UK PMI Manufacturing, Thursday – BOE Inflation Report & MPC, Friday – UK PMI Services, US Non-Farm Payrolls and employment data.

 

 

 David Buik

Market Commentator – Panmure Gordon & Co

 

  +44 (0)20 7886 2775

Mobile – 0044 7788 144 877

Panmure Gordon & Co

One New Change | London | EC4M 9AF